RE: Oil may have a bit more to fall

Oil may have bottomed friday. Gapped down and bounced off of support. Israel/Gaza and Pakistan news out should boost it for next week IMO. "when fundamentals matter" :)

"Woman says God sent dream to save her"

Another great story that's on the blog. Great reminder that there's more to life than trading and money. Faith in Christ is much more important. "God works for the good of those who love him..."

http://www.modbee.com/local/story/544774.html

Good stuff.


God Bless and hope everyone had a Merry Christmas.

Oil may have a bit more to fall

From my previous post......

"I don't see a catalyst for a major drop in the next few as opposed to quite a few ppl. My best gauge being the VIX right now."

This holds to be true as the market rallied almost 400 points on Fed day and held it's ground today. My account has taken a beating due to some HORRIBLE option strangles I place. These positions weren't traded very well because I simply don't know what I'm doing when it comes to this. I kind of screwed up my account. USO has been hurting me as well.

I actually did buy TOL calls yesterday @.25 but sold them @ .55 and then .55 today before they ran to 1.30. This caused a PDT violation and I can't trade anymore :) That's alright because commissions have accounted for almost 1/2 of my gains lol. I'm changing brokers and wont be around for a while.

IN the meantime all I have is 25 USO. Account equity approx 1900. (from 800 still not bad). High was 2200

Be back up and running soon. IMO the market looks bottomed for another reason. We completed a 5 wave down (bear market) and we need a basic ABC now IMO. I've read tons of sites now and none of them have a clue.

VIX and EW (even though I HATE EW) points to higher. Fundamentals have changed a bit as well. Wondering if we'll see a hyperinflation phase in the next year.

Who knows as I probably won't be up and running 100% until after New Years.

Merry CHRISTmas all and have a good one.

Long TOL puts

$20 strike from 75 last Thursday.

USO I've got 25 shares @ an average of 37 now. I sold 15 @ 39 and change, bought 10 back @ 36.80ish. Bought more today @ 37.14.

COST i've got $50 puts @ 50 and 57.5 calls @ .15 (2 of them).

Account took a 130 hit from the COST options and commissions. So equity @ 2070. No biggie.

I'll probably be down to $2k eventually as I don't see a catalyst for a major drop in the next few as opposed to quite a few ppl. My best gauge being the VIX right now.

As for charts.....i've got much more charting coming from now on :)

MATK was sold by accident BTW

I was trying to buy more @ .50 and I accidently sold it. Was going to go into earnings with a call hedge, but ah well. No position on that.

Shorted 25 COST @ 52.65 for a small daytrade. Covered 1/2 @ 51.76.

Out my cost trade for a loss of about -120

Closed 15 shares of USO @ 39ish. Holding 5.

Bought TOL $20 puts @ .75. Holding till tomorrow probably.

Overall crazy day...head is spinning. Idk what's going on here. COST really pissed me off.

COST trade was HORRIBLE

These options got killed as if this things going into expiration. I don't get it. FUCK

MATK out @ .50 from .30 for a 10 gain after commissions. What a waste.

USO rockin...yay

In COST puts/ Trying MATK puts

Out 1/3 USO @ 35.16

Not liking the loss on this thing.

Equity over $2200 again now

Out DRYS @ 9.23

~115% return on the last 30.

History of my executions

I'm horrible at posting real-time executions. I don't care because I talk about the trade typically right after :).

Anyways, here's my history so everyone can see the trades I executed from the Zecco site.

Averaged up on DRYS and that is ALWAYS the way to go with trading. The easiest to manage trades are the ones that are positive.

DRYS now 7.40, USO 36

Beautiful day today. Couldn't have gotten it any better.

DRYS worth a lot more still

Picked up TOL 17.5 put @ .35 to "hedge" some of this exposure.
Still holding 2 15's.

DRYS killed this thing.

Sold 50 @ 6.82 and holding onto 30. They came out with a small blurb about financials and where they are lol. 60% gain on this.

"DJ The most recent annual report, and if applicable, quarterly report, is available for DryShips



DryShips: The most recent annual report, and if applicable, quarterly report, is available at no fee.

To order, visit http://djnewswires.ar.wilink.com/?link=DRYS or call 1-888-301-0513

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=CTPHyu0A4I5EcQi%2BXLKGbQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
"




Market just realized how under-valued this thing is.

Oil up $2 on the NYMEX, S&P up huge too

DRYS looking great, USO looking great and my shitty TOL puts gonna get slaughtered.

Ah well. Fun day ahead tomorrow. Really happy USO is up and i'm sure DRYS will see upper 5's tomorrow.

Anyone short right now deserves the storm they're gonna get because they have NO CLUE how to trade these markets. Atilla reminds me of Prechter and his run into a brick wall using his Elliot Wave analysis. Sticking to his guns? Go ahead.

Late update....

In DRYS 40 @ 4.13 and 40 @ 4.42. (now 4.80)

Added 17 USO @ 37.92 and taking a huge hit on this. Still expect this to come back and it looks like OPEC is going to cut pretty big Dec. 17.

TOL trade is a wash right now (and a big waste of commissions)

Equity is $1992 down for a high of $2235.

Still sitting things out and really hope TOL tanks, USO goes up, and DRYS rockets.

wow

One of the most commonly used option pricing models has a HUGE flaw

Not feeling good on TOL

Getting my ass kicked here. Tomorrow's the big day

Added USO 37.92

Total of 30 shares now

Added more TOL

EDITED THIS POST 12/4 as well.

Added more of my TOL position

Today's move was predictable

I COULD have caught a better portion of this had I used an important piece of TA which I felt wasn't as strong as the rest. I guess in these conditions it's reliability increases. Ah well. Gonna have to remember this.

Oil getting CRUSHED A/H

Glad I got the hell out of some of that. Had a pretty good feeling on this one.

TOL puts are up nicely. .85 now. Gonna hold for 1.7 and 3. Hopefully don't have to use the call hedge. IMO BZH and TOL both going to miss.

Playing TOL

EDITED THIS POST.....only sharing gains and losses on this trade

Out 1/2 USO @ 41.47

Took 1/2 off the table for a small loss. Gonna re-evaluate, but I don't want 1/2 my account in this thing if it breaks to new lows REGARDLESS of whether it comes back or not. I'm sure it will and I'm long-term, but I'm not stupid. :)

Huge oil move A/H

Oil moved HUGE after hours. Not sure what's going on but it broke through the previous highs temporarily.

USO up nicely

Up a little over 4%. 43 in @ 41 avg about. I will say one thing though. This rally has little substance. (No volume today.)

TOL taking a bath, but I'm holding these into earnings on the 4th as a hedge against USO

TOL puts

the were up just under 50% for the day (1.05) but came right back. This thing is toast IMO. On every level it's in the shitter....TA, FA, it's sole existence. You name it.

Fed shouldn't bail this crap-hole out.

Lets see....financials, autos, home-builders. US should have a "SR" on the end.

Added more USO @ 41.4

25 shares now. About 1g (1/2 the account). My outlook for the market is bearish, and I think oil's gonna follow (aka new lows).

With that said....I do have some reasons for this trade.

#1 Technical support
#2 OPEC meeting this weekend and Dec. for cuts.

As of right now there's absolutely no reason to own oil as there's no DAmand out there ;)

Out some VOXX @ 3.89

In TOL puts and account equity.....

In TOL put $15 strike again @ .75. This is both a hedge and a viable position I wanted.

Account equity as of close of last night was 2195 (approx 175% from 800)

Positions today (giving some back on oil)

The new analysis on C

From Elite last night: Explains the pop IMO. I COULD go into how these bailouts have KILLED financials ...but i'll save that topic for later.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
athlonmank8


Registered: May 2007
Posts: 918


11-24-08 12:23 AM

It's a wash on the 20 billion. Shares get diluted 20 billion HOWEVER your balance sheet gets a 20 billion lift.

The kicker is the 7 billion preferred and the divvy cut.

40% max loss on the stock not including some of this being priced in (ex. divvy cut).

300 billion backstop is the question though. IMO that's worth way more than the preferred dilution.....unless I'm wrong.

Still don't understand how those warrants work against the stock.



C up in Japan.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


The warrants now make sense, but they're gonna stay worthless IMO. The actual kicker is that the warrants SHOULD be worth money with the 300 billion backstop.

Out some DRYS

Out 30 @ 4.29. Still holding small chunk.

Lookin good

VOXX @ 4.17, DRYS @ 3.90. USO gapped and came back down tho. AMD just a lotto.

Out C @ 5.61

haha luckily I didn't sleep in too late. Nice gain on this. 60%.

Futures up 15

Nice....everything else should gap up. C still in question. IMO it's going to get beat up, but not NEARLY as bad as it could have been. Think I got lucky on this.

C analysis on terms

-300 billion backstop
-20 billion infusion
-Fed gets 7 billion in preferred
-Common divvy canceled.

What I don't get is the warrants.....what the hell does this mean? No dilution?

Anyways, my analysis:
Worst we can fall is approx 40% if I understand the terms of the agreement correctly (which takes into consideration potential dilution/cancellation of divvy).

NOW that is the worst case scenario. Granted a 300 billion backstop and 20 billion infusion IS NOT factored in. Neither is the fact that the divvy cancellation was most likely already factored in (no way it wasn't).

C trading up in Japan. I'm wondering if it has something to do with the warrants and how that relates the the limited dilution.

OR 'C' needs to sell off part of it's business

That'll do the trick too. These execs should get NOTHING regardless.

Awww shit

Fuckin 'C' commons are going to be worthless. I'm gonna take a bath on this thing. Hope there's no news tomorrow. Gonna get out first thing in the AM.

Government's going to come in and bail them out.......then take preferred and vaporize the common shares. How many times have we seen that shit go down?

Need a buyout. Save my ass here. :)

Positions....

Nothing special here. Not enough money in anything to make it worthwhile, but regardless some nice gains. C was a good one.

Positions:

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
AMD 70 $1.65 $1.71 $4.20 3.64% $119.70 Trade
C 50 $3.45 $3.61 $8.15 4.73% $180.50 Trade
DRYS 50 $3.20 $3.39 $9.50 5.94% $169.50 Trade
USO 15 $40.61 $40.59 $-0.38 -0.06% $608.84 Trade
VOXX 60 $3.30 $3.38 $4.80 2.42% $202.80 Trade

In C @ 3.46

50 shares. Not sure what's going on here.

In 70 AMD @ 1.65

This stock and I go way back. I'll ride it to zero

Just like the good ole days.
Miss the '99-00 years. :)

GO AMD!! TO DA MOOOOOOOOOOON.

Back in DRYS

Back in @ 3.20. Fuck it. I actually like this thing. Should gap up on Monday

Out DRYS

Out @ 3.30 on a stop. -20% on this lotto ($40). Account equity about 1950 right now.

OPEC is the other reason for the USO long

OPEC's got their hand in the production so if this does bottom it should be a pretty good sized spike.

TOL

This is the downside with options. Riding the front-month into expiration is too much of a gamble.

TOL trading 14.10 and the 15 calls in the money by about .90. haha. Shoulda gambled and held that one I guess. it's a $10 stock at the most.

@ 2003 levels

Just went over the charts again. We should bounce off this point. See why there's strength down here. I'll put in stops, but we should see a small rise from here.

Don't usually second guess myself, but we'll probably just move back up to test the lows and roll over.

In the rest of USO @ 40.15ish. 15 shares now.


Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
DRYS 40 $4.13 $3.45 $-27.20 -16.47% $138.00 Trade
USO 15 $40.61 $40.17 $-6.67 -1.10% $602.55 Trade
VOXX 60 $3.30 $3.18 $-7.20 -3.64% $190.80 Trade

In VOXX 3.30

Picked some up on valuation. Even with negative earnings they're worth a bit more than $3.

DRYS I don't know. This feels like classic dilution if i've ever seen it. Even if they do 200 mil in earnings they're worth way more than this. You do the math. Yeah something's not right.

USO.....inflation hedge. Not enough in there to care anyways.

Market: Think we're headed lower and this is just a hiccup. Financials are crap right now and retail's going down the tubes too. Not pretty and technicals confirm more downside.

Out TOL...market did fall.....

Fell like a stone again....

From a few days ago on here......
------------------------------------------------------------
Here we go....
TOL might be worth some money tomorrow. Market going to get raped. GS, BAC, MS, GM.

New lows did break as I said yesterday, and there's nothing in the way to stop it for a while.

Too bad im out. Best of luck to the longs and buffett. They're going to need it.
Posted by Dan at 5:09 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Still holding TOL puts from .30 (15 strike)
Market's going to break to new lows IMO. Unless of course something changes....which I doubt it will.

Like these puts but it's too bad they're OTM. Might just take the hit and gamble into expiration.

----------------------------------------------------------

Enough said there....

Yeah out @ .35 on a limit. No confidence in OTM options going into expiration. Wrong move, but ah well. Preserve capital and take another swing at it later.

Still holding DRYS and USO. No stops planned yet. Order to buy VOXX tomorrow. Bottom should set up soon for a scalp. Then probably going lower again.

TOL puts up to .60...picked some stuff up

TOL puts were up to .60. Probably still gonna hold these.

Picked up DRYS on valuation and USO on support. Need more USO I think though.

Date/Time (EDT) Net Amount Transaction
11/20/2008 10:37 AM $-169.70 Bought 40 DRYS@ $4.13 Details
11/20/2008 10:37 AM $-292.20 Bought 7 USO@ $41.10 Details

S&P's -14 A/H

TOL puts gonna be nice tomorrow :)

Here we go....

TOL might be worth some money tomorrow. Market going to get raped. GS, BAC, MS, GM.

New lows did break as I said yesterday, and there's nothing in the way to stop it for a while.

Too bad im out. Best of luck to the longs and buffett. They're going to need it.

Still holding TOL puts from .30 (15 strike)

Market's going to break to new lows IMO. Unless of course something changes....which I doubt it will.

Like these puts but it's too bad they're OTM. Might just take the hit and gamble into expiration.

Not worried. Trying to take some time off and relax. Don't need the stress from stocks for a while. I've reached my goal and can finally do what I set out to do years ago with the markets as evidenced by my triple digit gains over the worst market we've seen.

Out ADM @ .45

Sold the 22.5 puts @ .45 today luckily. Made a huge mistake on that position yesterday and felt it. Glad I sold today.

Execution history I'll post later. Equity @ 1990.



Still holding TOL though from .30.

As if it couldn't get worse.........

Noticed VOXX was back to the original buy.... (and still worth about $6)

VOXX 11/13/2008 11:40 AM 50 Buy
$4.55 ***Canceled***

haha closed 5.88.

Nice gain on TOL, but ADM is a mess

TOL took 200% in a day on that thing. +100.

REALLY screwed up on ADM though. Pattern daytrading fucked me up because I was actually going to just completely take the gain if I had one, but I've already done 3 R/T's. Stupid SEC. Was up to .90's.

As of right now, the first mistake cost -$15.

This one's -20+10 comissions. Should be a 45-50 loss on it. It's going higher tomorrow IMO.

Overall, account should be around 2030

Out TOL @ .75, back in

Sold TOL puts on a limit @ .75 for a 200% gain.

Back in @ .30. Executions for the day.....I'm a dummy

11/13/2008 3:28 PM $-35.00 Bought 1 TEPWC@ $0.30 Details
11/13/2008 12:59 PM $144.50 Sold 2 TEPWC@ $0.75 Details
11/13/2008 10:20 AM $-70.00 Bought 1 ADMWX@ $0.65 Details
11/13/2008 10:18 AM $55.00 Sold 1 ADMWX@ $0.60 Details
11/13/2008 10:17 AM $-70.00 Bought 1 ADMWX@ $0.65 Details
11/13/2008 09:46 AM $243.60 Sold 10 SSO@ $24.81 Details

All stops go in A/H from now on

Pissed off about that

Shit accidently sold @ .60

$15 loss. Back in @ .65 ughhhhhhhh stupid

ADM

in 22.5 puts @ .65. .40 stop.

SSO out rest @ 24.81

About a $41 loss on this SSO trade (includes commissions). Not horrible.

Out because of Germany declaring recession and the TOL puts being up to .40 from .25 so far

Do I use indicators?

Hell no. I've had several people ask me that. I will NEVER use them. The indicator's the chart and the 4-5 hard TA tools I use.

Executions today.

Lost about $50 so far on SSO. If equity hits 1900 I'm done.

Commission $20 and have a 25.92 avg on it. 20 of the 30 sold @ 25.36

Out SSO 20 of the 30

stopped @ 25.36.

YHOO puts up to $2....shit, knew it.

TOL holding steady though. They're gonna fall more

Added SSO

15 @ 26.14 stop moved up to 25.20

In TOL $15 puts.

In 2 @ .25....

Housing should make new lows before expiry. Another gamble

In SSO @ 25.72

Yeah we're at the trendline. This isn't gonna hold, but it's worth a gamble. 24.5 is the stop, but it may get moved up to 25ish.

This is in hopes they bailout GM....they've been timely with the TA on this garbage.
It's almost a joke now. Bailout failed completely and these guys are completely idiots.

My guess is we break to new lows

Sold off everything

Screwed up and sold all the puts and calls. Wanted to hold onto 1 of the puts as I think YHOO's going lower. Only made a small chunk on this position.

Out 1.31 puts and .21 calls.

Market looks extremely weak. Not sure what Atilla's thinking. GM and MS both look like bankruptcy IMO. It's getting scary out there again.

Added to YHOO short (put strangle now)

Reversed position. Think YHOO is going to go to at least 10.

Added to the 12 put @ .98 and added to the 14 strike as a hedge @ .36.

Basically doubled the strangle position.

Saved by the YHOO puts

haha got lucky on that hedge. Think YHOO's gonna go into single digits.

In YHOO $12 puts

Picked them up @ .45 as a hedge. Gonna play a strangle on this as volatility is sure to rise.

lol...YHOO

This is hilarious. What timing.

14.5's and racing upwards....

Let the bidding begin baby!!! Gonna be fun to watch AOL/MSFT go at it. Am I closing this position?! HECK NO.

From Livermore: Remember the story about the guy at the dog track? Up $100k at one point......."How'd ya do?" (smiles and says) "I only lost" $2 :)

Screenshot of the position



Calls ARE in the money though! Stops @ .80

RE: ETN

Said....

"On a side note ETN haha. Calls up to 1.60 today sold'em @ .35...haha. Ah well.

-----------------------------------

OUCHHHHHH. Needed a little more patience on this one. Calls @ $3.00 now haha. Missed out on that 1000%. The joys of trading. But this does support that 35% stop reasoning. Plenty of opportunity and that's why 35% should be justified in the options market.



With THAT said...since it's not my account I don't post this in the blog

Parent's IRA i'm doing.....

10/30/2008 ETN BOUGHT 10 SHARES OF ETN AT $46.65 ($7.00) $0.00 ($473.50)
10/23/2008 ETN BOUGHT 15 SHARES OF ETN AT $41.75 ($7.00) $0.00 ($633.25)

:)

Today's Completed Orders
Symbol Action Qty Acct Type Price Total
ETN SOLD 25 CASH $50.59 $1,257.74

YHOO calls up 41%

Google backs out of deal and YHOO's up. Upgrade helps and the new psychology that YHOO's going to get bought out.

High of 129 today. In @ .79. ($14 strike)

Probably would have been just the same if I had bought 15's. Looks like those moved a little more on this. Basically in the money though on these 14's so I guess that's a good thing :)

Stop now @ .70 for a minimal loss

Stop on YHOO @ .48

Using my 35% stop/loss rule on anything .50 and over.

.50 and under for options is 50% stop/loss max. I can do lower too.

This is just a small part of my mechanical TA system. The percentages are in my favor.

Example. If I lose 33% 3 times. All I need is 100% to make it back....which isn't something I'm worried about at all. I could do 20% but with the VIX at these levels it's too tight IMO.

Atilla had a great sizing strategy.....

ATILLA:
"position size=K*(total capital)/(vix*rr)
rr=risk reward ratio
vix=market volatility if you trade ES
K=a constant you chose based on your own postfolio risk

you have 1M
vix is at 60
you have a setup 1:2 ratio meaning you short at 900, stop 910, target 880
K=1

position size=34K for that particular trade

if your risk bracket higher, make that K=2 or 3"


The guy's a genius

Gambling on YHOO

Just picked up $14 calls @ .79. Thinking this is going over $14+.

Upgraded today and I still feel this will be bought out.

SPX just over 1,000

There it is. I would expect a bit more from this market, but with the elections coming up my accuracy is going to go down so I'm going to stay on the sidelines untilt he market reacts to our new president

SPX retracement off 985.

Still strength in the chart. Would wait for anything near the 970 range again for a long. Market still has plenty of strength and all support points should be valid.

From the breakout the market looks like it's on it's way to 1000+ and possibly the 1050 area

Stops near that previous 955 swing low

VOXX RE: Valuation

"Still holding VOXX up on that as well (valuation with 50% discounted Rec. and Inventory puts it @ 6). "

----------------------------------------

Mentioned that a week ago in the SSO post.

6.64 at the moment. Bad time to take a break last friday I guess lol.

Was in @ 4.45 and added 5.06. Turned out to be a very poor trade on my part not waiting it out.

1981 equity

Starting equity was $800.




150%.

Out YHOO calls @ .68

Sold'em. Think YHOO's too stupid to be bought out and the stock isn't acting right.

No more positions going into the weekend.....

Boy that felt good to say.

Equity value of the portfolio about 1980 or 1990. About a 150% return over the past 2 months.

Time for some much needed vacation.

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

God Bless

Out rest of VOXX @ 5.67

Probably still conservative but I want to quite for a while....take a break and enjoy life.

Account gonna be probably 1980 lol....

just shy of 2k and that 150% return over 2 months.

Should be a clean P&L statement to get me a job though.

Market 983....

Upside continues. Knew it when I sold SSO but really want to take a break from all this soon. SPX gunning for at least 1k I think.

VOXX @ new highs and YHOO moving higher too. I'll be out by the end of the day of everything.

Out 1/2 VOXX @ 5.50

Moved stop up as well to 4.90.

24% return using the "fundamental" approach. (Hardly ever fails:) )

Sold SSO, VOXX rockin

Sold SSO @ 31.73. I still think there's more upside for a while but I'll just stick to my equity longs. Really looking to take a few weeks off pretty soon so we'll see. (27% return on that long)

VOXX @ 5.56.

Account @ 1940 and probably @ 1980-2000 by end of day hopefully.

-Dan

2nd daytrade

ughhh stupid sold voxx by accident

Added to VOXX

Picked up 20 more @ 5.06. Gotta recalc avg. Sold by accident 20 @ 5.05

EDIT: AVG 4.65 stop @ 4.7

Positions:

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value

SSO 10 $25.05 $30.78 $57.30 22.87% $307.80
VOXX 40 $4.45 $5.02 $22.80 12.81% $200.80
YHQKC 1 $0.78 $0.77 $-1.00 -1.28% $77.00

Changed my mind on YHOO

Sold the 17's @ .40 and bought the 15's back @ .78.

Putting a stop in.....I found my balls :)

YHOO going to 14 IMO at least

YHOO calls up a ton

Puts me back into the black on the $15 (+200% move today). Sold it @ .80 for a small gain. IV is way up on them in addition to the 6% move. Takeover rumors running this thing right now.

$17 calls up 300% today to .44. Gonna hold onto these ones for a bit and hope the 15's fall. Gonna pick them back up.

IMO this thing is gonna get bought out.

SSO up today and so is VOXX as well. VOXX cracked $5 and IMO gonna move to at least 6 on valuation.

Execution

10/30/2008 12:53 PM $80.00 Sold 1 YHQKC@ $0.80 Details

Closed 2/3 SSO....waiting for GDP

Sold 20 @ 29.70 for decent gains. Still holding 10 until GDP #'s. Then I may add.

Still holding VOXX up on that as well (valuation with 50% discounted Rec. and Inventory puts it @ 6).

On a side note ETN haha. Calls up to 1.60 today sold'em @ .35...haha. Ah well.

Only option position left is YHOO. Bought because of a possible buyout (15 and 17 calls). Now rumors out AOL looking at merging with YHOO and im sure MSFT not gonna sit on the sidelines. Lookin for a bidding war on that one.

Account now @ 1850 +137% from Sept.

@ the CBOE today

Did a mock trading session and learned some stuff from ETRD. A lot of fun. Helped me to hold onto that SSO position.

Raped SSO today

In SSO 30 @ $25. Closed $30.

Sold ETN .35, AA .22, and UYG .30 lol. What a joke. Kinda sucks but the gains on SSO are nice.

Current positions.....

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value

SSO 30 $25.05 $29.89 $145.20 19.32% $896.70
VOXX 40 $4.45 $4.54 $3.60 2.02% $181.60
YHQKC 1 $0.60 $0.28 $-32.00 -53.33% $28.00
YHQKR 1 $1.00 $0.10 $-90.00 -90.00% $10.00

Pilots run out of fuel, pray, land near Jesus sign

haha that's awesome

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24765324/

WELLINGTON, New Zealand - It seemed like an almost literal answer to their prayers. When two New Zealand pilots ran out of fuel in a microlight airplane they offered prayers and were able to make an emergency landing in a field — coming to rest right next to a sign reading, "Jesus is Lord."

Grant Stubbs and Owen Wilson, both from the town of Blenheim on the country's South Island, were flying up the sloping valley of Pelorus Sound when the engine spluttered, coughed and died.

"My friend and I are both Christians so our immediate reaction in a life-threatening situation was to ask for God's help," Stubbs told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

He said he prayed during the ill-fated flight Sunday that the tiny craft would get over the top of a ridge and that they would find a landing site that was not too steep — or in the nearby sea.

Wilson said that the pair would have been in deep trouble if the fuel had run out five minutes earlier.

"If it had to run out, that was the place to be," he said. "There was an instantaneous answer to prayer as we crossed the ridge and there was an airfield — I didn't know it existed till then."

After Wilson glided the powerless craft to a landing on the grassy strip, the pair noticed they were beside a 20-foot-tall sign that read, "Jesus is Lord — The Bible."

"When we saw that, we started laughing," Stubbs said.

Nearby residents provided them with gas to fly the home-built plane back to base.

1 daytrade...only 2 more allowed in rolling 5

Need to keep note of this now so I don't get flagged.

Stopped out of SSO

Out @ 26.13 for about a 1pt loss. ($20) hah. Gotta love stops. Holding onto the rest as the stops haven't been hit. I'm going to be taking some losses tomorrow though.

Executions

10/27/2008 2:52 PM $522.60 Sold 20 SSO@ $26.13 Details
10/27/2008 1:47 PM $-45.00 Bought 1 UUFKM@ $0.45 Details
10/27/2008 1:18 PM $-541.60 Bought 20 SSO@ $27.08 Details
10/27/2008 1:08 PM $-178.00 Bought 40 VOXX@ $4.45 Details
10/27/2008 12:57 PM $-33.00 Bought 1 AAKA@ $0.33 Details

Positions:

AAKA Alcoa Inc. Common Stock
$12.50 CALL 11/22/2008 1 $0.33 $0.25 $-8.00 -24.24% $25.00 Trade Details Quote
ETNKJ Eaton Corporation Common Shares
$50.00 CALL 11/22/2008 1 $0.30 $0.40 $10.00 33.33% $40.00 Trade Details Quote
UUFKM ProShares Ultra Financials
$11.00 CALL 11/22/2008 1 $0.45 $0.35 $-10.00 -22.22% $35.00 Trade Details Quote
VOXX Audiovox Corporation 40 $4.45 $4.29 $-6.40 -3.60% $171.60 Trade Details Quote
YHQKC Yahoo! Inc.
$15.00 CALL 11/22/2008 1 $0.60 $0.23 $-37.00 -61.67% $23.00 Trade Details Quote
YHQKR Yahoo! Inc.
$17.00 CALL 11/22/2008 1 $1.00 $0.13 $-87.00 -87.00% $13.00 Trade Details Quote

Positions

Picked up SSO and AA calls

Strait SSO position and AA calls. Went ultra S&P for some leverage.

Long VOXX too because of valuation.

Why is PNC using bailout money to buy National City?

I thought this was so companys to increase liquidity and prevent failures lol.

Are they really that serious/stupid? What a joke.

MS lower on capital outflows

People are pulling their money from the bank. Outflows were $46 billion from money market funds. In addition there's very little support on the chart for any buying. Looks like it should drift lower.

$14.30 at the moment. Probably should have held those puts but wanted some time off.

Market gapping down A/H

If it does, it's very likely we break Fri's lows which pretty much sends the market into a free-fall on stops.

If I had bigger balls I woulda held onto my MS puts...apparently MUFG just did another equity placement to raise cash. MS probably on the same track and explains the high volume on $12.5 puts last week. Fuckers.

Ah well.

1780 to be exact

haha not bad from a start of 800

Account equity: 1700+

Started the account with 800 about a month and a half ago. Now @ about 1700+ prolly 1750.

Not too bad. Need to start enjoying some of these profits.

900 is nothing though. Feel like I'm wasting my time

Out AA at the close

Out @ about even. Don't need that much long exposure.

ETN, YHOO enough for me.

Looks like it worked out well

Market should have followed thru to the downside IMO. Got a good break by getting out of those puts. Covered because of pure fear. Market could gap up Mon. I'm positioned for it so I'm hoping that's the case.

ETN calls look great and AA calls do too.

God Bless and enjoy the weekend.

Screw it....out of all Puts

Not gonna trade the system as planed. Good or bad....we'll see I guess.

Executions:
10/24/2008 10:51 AM $240.00 Sold 1 MSWC@ $2.40 Details
10/24/2008 09:54 AM $61.00 Sold 1 YHQWB@ $0.61 Details
10/24/2008 09:37 AM $105.00 Sold 1 GMWA@ $1.05 Details
10/24/2008 09:30 AM $322.00 Sold 1 UALWV@ $3.22 Details

MS $1.35 gain, YHOO $.04 loss, GM $.40 gain, UAUA, $1.75 gain.

Out GM, UAUA

Blessed to be out of UAUA 13's now.

Holding MS just for the heck of it.

Executions today

10/24/2008 09:37 AM $105.00 Sold 1 GMWA@ $1.05 Details
10/24/2008 09:30 AM $322.00 Sold 1 UALWV@ $3.22 Details

3 AM Friday

A/H futures showing a 400pt drop. This is the gap down i've been fearing. Very likely we crash tomorrow. Lots of longs got suckered into this "bottom".

This gap breaks all support and next area is sub sub 800 on ths SPX and prolly 7k on the DOW.

Gonna be interesting AM.

OPEC gonna cut

OPEC prez says a cut is coming. Reason I got into those puts. Commodity prices should move up with oil IMO.

A/H

YHOO was rockin. Probably on the MSFT earnings.

Market's not taking those as well as I'd imagined. Market is VERY VERY weak and IMO if we break this support we're gonna crash. Just too many suckers up here "thinkin" it's a bottom. It may work, but if it doesn't it's going to be trouble.

With that said...this COULD also be a bottom. That's why i'm doing a few strangles here.

Targets

MS - open. UAUA 10's. YHOO 14-15 (buyout IMO). ETN 50's. AA - open

Puts up quite a bit

Picked up calls on ETN, AA. YHOO looks good A/H. Shorts are MS, UAUA (oil gonna go higher), and GM

here are the positions....not a bad day at all. Holding onto all gains. UAUA holding onto a nice winner here.

New lows?

Everytime i've seen a stock/market bottom out like this, it usually breaks the lows and actually penetrate the previous support before finding a bottom. That means 800(-) on the SPX.

Gotta say i'm not too worried here with the puts.

Puts worked out well

MS puts were up a bit, GM up a bit, UAUA off the highs. Setting a nice base.

YHOO still on the ledge with this thing. Bought some $15 calls to offset some downside

Picked up UAUA puts $12.5 strike

@ 1.45 Done for now

Account @ $1,400 ALWAYS USE STOPS.....

Stopped out of a C long on Mon and was murdered on a YHOO $17 call I bought friday going into earnings (thought there would be a takeover). Bought a put before the YHOO earnings call ($10) strike and murdered on that. Lost about $130 overall. I shoulda used the stops on the YHOO puts I guess. Ah well. Live and learn.

Now enforcing a 35% stop on everything. Should keep it a bit more balanced.

Picked up a MS $15 put for $1.05 and a GM $5 put for $.66. Stops on both.

Current positions:

BP back

Finally lifted the daytrader restrictions. Back in business. Need to do some scanning

GE...

Posted this on ET...

Something's up with this thing. Gonna get some news soon

Inflation.....

Going to be a popular word once again. See it on the 10-year as Rick Santelli stated on CNBC.

Rates are going to move up once again.

Sold some stuff

Out C @ 18.44 from 13.829 1 IRA account

Out SLM @ 10.52 from 6.60 in the other IRA account. (still holding NCC actually from 2.10.

10/9/2008 SLM BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF SLM AT $6.5774 ($7.00) $0.00 ($664.74)
10/10/2008 SLM SOLD 50 SHARES OF SLM AT $7.0102 ($7.01) $0.00 $343.50
10/10/2008 NCC BOUGHT 50 SHARES OF NCC AT $2.10 ($7.00) $0.00 ($112.00)

(NCC....was almost out of free cash in the account)

These are NOT my accounts BTW. Just 2 IRA's I do for my parents. My cut is my mom washing my clothes and making my bed in the morning..... jk ;)

RE: Gapped up Mon +900 overall

Great day today. Saw this coming from a mile away last week Fri. Great move and picking up some calls tomorrow. We're bottomed for a while. Market should move up all week IMO.

Long SLM from 6.60 in an IRA and C from 13 something

Changed my mind BTW :)

Figured i'd state that. Plenty of room to move up now too.

Gap up Monday

Bottom is actually in off the '03 levels. Still have too much money in the system, but we'll see what happens with that later.

:) Gonna be a green week next week. Buying calls on Tues if they're not up too much.

No trading for a day or 2

Got flagged Tues or Wed. for Pattern Daytrading and lost my BP. Will be online in the next few :)

7900 enough on the DOW?

Scraped the '03 levels. IMO not enough. Not enough money in the system.

They are going to throw EVERYTHING at this. Talk about inflation. You haven't seen ANYTHING yet.

Give it 6 months. What a mess we're going to be in. Beginning of the end guys. Well known hyperinflation is the last step to an economic collapse.

lol not even a chance...blew right thru that support

Sweet. Ah well. No longs yet. It's ugly guys. Next target is 7700. Futures down another 240pts A/H and Asia down 10%+.

WE

ARE

IN

DEEP

CRAP

Potential Bottom

8950ish.

Coming up

RE: SLM toast

"Thursday, October 2, 2008
SLM toast
Student loan market gone too
Posted by Dan at 6:37 PM
"

Oct 9. SLM trades low 4's. Couldn't have been a better call on this.

Posted this on xTrends last week Fri.....

""Dan said...
Hmmm. Going to go back over my charts here. Only saw 30 S&P as a likely possibility and 80 as a max before finding some support.

However, the style in which the market moved up provides a very weak base for ANY support. It's a rocket-sled down but we're going to have a pause and THEN the crash. Could be wrong though.

Regardless, great job Atilla.""


SLM going down the tubes too.

Guys it's the style in which the market moved up that's causing this. There's no support ANYWHERE and that's why we're seeing this happening. It's going to be a horrible market for the next week or so IMO.

GM out @ 1.20 yesterday

A little over 100% on the option.

GM @ 5.50 (left another $100 on the table). Ah well. Coulda seen this coming.

Fed DID cut as well. But confidence is already broken. We're in trouble. BIG time. We should have printed a bottom yesterday but no such luck. I'm a little worried.

Account is at $1550 now. Almost doubled from $800.

Out of all my puts. Gonna take a vacation and relax.

Still holding the worthless calls in C, USB, and AMR.

I'm out for the day.

God Bless.

Stopped out GE option @ .24

Closed DRI .40 (E), 1 GM @ .72, TOL @ .45. GM the only put that's left


They're gonna cut IMO

Positions

GM options doing great.....looking for mid 7's on the thing too.

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
AMRJP 1 $0.35 $0.10 $-25.00 -71.43% $10.00
CJE 2 $0.40 $0.13 $-53.00 -67.09% $26.00
DRIVX 1 $0.40 $0.45 $5.00 12.50% $45.00
GEWJX 1 $0.41 $0.33 $-8.00 -19.51% $33.00
GMVR 2 $0.49 $0.63 $28.00 28.57% $126.00
TEPVW 1 $0.45 $0.45 $0.00 0.00% $45.00
USBJH 1 $0.40 $0.10 $-30.00 -75.00% $10.00

Equity

$1540 as of last night (account almost doubled)

Took a loss though on the GE FRO options. Picked it up by accident.

In GE $24 calls though.

RE: Buying some NOV puts in BAC tomorrow

There was a wolf on this thing. Son of a bitch should be investigated. Knew it.

$300 day not bad

Left a ton on the table.

TOL, GM, DRI shorts

Those are the shorts.

They were up nicely earlier. Hopefully gap down tomorrow, but this looks like a bottom into Wed.

BAC misses...plunges

Shit BAC missed A/H and MER plunging too. Should have held the damn puts :(. Missed a ton.

My other puts were up on the drop too but missed out on selling (at work).

Damn work.

Picked up the TOL put

17.50 now. The calls were my hedges

Positions:

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
AMRJP 1 $0.35 $0.14 $-21.00 -60.00% $14.00
CJE 2 $0.40 $0.15 $-49.00 -62.03% $30.00
DRIVX 1 $0.40 $0.40 $0.00 0.00% $40.00
GMVR 1 $0.58 $0.60 $2.00 3.45% $60.00
TEPVW 1 $0.45 $0.45 $0.00 0.00% $45.00
USBJH 1 $0.40 $0.20 $-20.00 -50.00% $20.00

Sold all the puts! (picked up a couple)

-300pts was the target. Made out very nicely. Picked up a sympothy DRI put (22.5) and picked back up the GM 7.50 put. Everything else was closed. Might buy back a TOL put too.

10/06/2008 10:11 AM $130.00 Sold 1 MOJVX@ $1.30 Details
10/06/2008 10:08 AM $-40.00 Bought 1 DRIVX@ $0.40 Details
10/06/2008 10:03 AM $100.00 Sold 1 DRIVE@ $1.00 Details
10/06/2008 10:02 AM $105.00 Sold 1 TEPVD@ $1.05 Details
10/06/2008 09:58 AM $-58.00 Bought 1 GMVR@ $0.58 Details
10/06/2008 09:37 AM $90.00 Sold 1 TEPVD@ $0.90 Details
10/06/2008 09:34 AM $169.00 Sold 1 BACWE@ $1.69 Details
10/06/2008 09:33 AM $185.00 Sold 1 BACVF@ $1.85 Details

This matches up with my "mid-week" rally expectations...

all starting to make sense now.

Cut coming?

Based on the Treasuries, it looks like we may see another cut coming. ~50 bps at the moment. I guess inflation isn't too bad either?

huh.

Bottom should be in Mid-next week

Showing 200-300 points downside and then going to find support. 800 pts MAX.

Average on C is wrong

Sold 1 of the calls for a profit and bought it back.

Avg I believe is .37 so the loss isn't quite that big on it.

~ 200 pt gap down IMO.

S&P has limited support until much lower

Huge sell-off EOD.

Had a feeling this was coming. Too much garbage up top (from people who gambled to the upside). We're going to gap down Monday. Gonna break the lows and pull the stops as well.

Looking forward to a good day Monday. Almost positive we gap down.

Eh alright day.

Glad the market moved down. Made some money, but could have done better. So is life :) Happy overall though.

All puts showing a profit (DRI bid/ask is .60/.70)

Positions Equity about at $1320 now

Out GM @ .42 small loss

Didn't feel I needed the risk or reward

Something just hapened with C

Instant 100% great hedge :)

Reason for the hedge

I dont care if I lose money. If the bail-out fails the market will disintegrate and my puts will move HUGE. If it goes through then my puts are instantly worthless and I need a hedge so I can GTFO and close everything for as small a loss as possible.

The beauty of options is the leverage.

Picked up USB $40 as a hedge

last one. Great chart and looks strong

Approx 350 in puts 70 in calls as a hedge

Maybe should pick up 1 more call

Picked up a BAC NOV put as well

Positions:

Losses right now....

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
AMRJP 1 $0.35 $0.25 $-10.00 -28.57% $25.00
BACVD 1 $0.49 $0.10 $-39.00 -79.59% $10.00
BACVF 1 $0.68 $0.55 $-13.00 -19.12% $55.00
CJE 2 $0.37 $0.35 $-3.00 -4.11% $70.00
DRIVE 1 $0.45 $0.45 $0.00 0.00% $45.00
GMVR 1 $0.48 $0.42 $-6.00 -12.50% $42.00
MOJVX 1 $0.54 $0.54 $0.00 0.00% $54.00
TEPVD 2 $0.40 $0.35 $-10.00 -12.50% $70.00

Closed GE hedge small loss (.43) Opened C

Picked up some C as a BETTER hedge @ .37 2 calls :) Makes a little more sense and the chart is stronger

SLM toast

Student loan market gone too

Buying some NOV puts in BAC tomorrow

There's a wolf on this thing

BAC puts

Holy shit. 52,000 $30 nov puts and 30k nov 17.50 puts

We could be headed for disaster

We screwed up big time. I really hope we make it out of this. Will explain more tomorrow

At the close. Looking good

Almost all of my puts are up. My hedges are down. Picked up a DRI put as well. Loaded with puts at the moment.

AMRJP 1 $0.35 $0.25 $-10.00 -28.57% $25.00 (C)
BACVD 1 $0.49 $0.13 $-36.00 -73.47% $13.00 (P)
BACVF 1 $0.68 $0.85 $17.00 25.00% $85.00 (P)
DRIVE 1 $0.45 $0.50 $5.00 11.11% $50.00 (P)
GEWJY 1 $0.48 $0.45 $-3.00 -6.25% $45.00 (C)
GMVR 1 $0.48 $0.56 $8.00 16.67% $56.00 (P)
TEPVD 2 $0.40 $0.45 $10.00 12.50% $90.00 (2P)

Updated positions

Bought some calls as kind of a hedge AMR and GE

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
AMRJP 1 $0.35 $0.35 $0.00 0.00% $35.00
BACVD 1 $0.49 $0.10 $-39.00 -79.59% $10.00
BACVF 1 $0.68 $0.62 $-6.00 -8.82% $62.00
GEWJY 1 $0.48 $0.48 $0.00 0.00% $48.00
GMVR 1 $0.48 $0.45 $-3.00 -6.25% $45.00
TEPVD 2 $0.40 $0.35 $-10.00 -12.50% $70.00

Shorted more.

Executions:

10/02/2008 11:25 AM $-48.00 Bought 1 GMVR@ $0.48 Details
10/02/2008 11:19 AM $-68.00 Bought 1 BACVF@ $0.68 Details
10/02/2008 11:10 AM $-35.00 Bought 1 TEPVD@ $0.35 Details

Positions:

BACVD Bank of America Corporation
$20.00 PUT 10/18/2008 1 $0.49 $0.10 $-39.00 -79.59% $10.00
BACVF Bank of America Corporation
$30.00 PUT 10/18/2008 1 $0.68 $0.62 $-6.00 -8.82% $62.00
GMVR General Motors Corporation
$7.50 PUT 10/18/2008 1 $0.48 $0.45 $-3.00 -6.25% $45.00
TEPVD
$20.00 PUT 10/18/2008 2 $0.40 $0.35 $-10.00 -12.50% $70.00


Down a bit on all so far. Thinkin the HoR may not pass the bill. If they do, well i'll just cover (or stop). BAC may be a stupid short, but I guess they're still having problems with CFC. Chart's bullish as hell so IDK what i'm doing. Just a gamble on the Bill I guess.

Market down 170 A/H Fed cut? Common......

Futures showing about a 170 point decline. We're gonna get toasted tomorrow. Fed thinking about cutting rates. How about we just hand out money? This is nuts.

Im short and opening up more puts in the AM.

Slept in today...

Learned my lesson from before. Done playing games with the market ahead of this news. Stopped out of BAC yest @ .39 from .60. ($25 strike). Holding my 20 strike because it's worthless and TOL is still in there too because housing is still dead. Not too worried. Felt I had to give some back just in case i missed out on something.

Probably not going to do much trading until Fri or Monday.

out MCD 57.5 strike @ .90.

A bit early I think, but don't need this big of a short line out right now....esp with the continued action by the govt.

MCD was a bit stronger than I like to play anyways.

Stops in on TOL and BAC.......

Picked up TOL $20 strike @ .45

Picked up BACVE out of sympothy actually

EOM


Current account.
Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
BACVD 1 $0.49 $0.21 $-28.00 -57.14% $21.00
BACVE 1 $0.60 $0.60 $0.00 0.00% $60.00
MCDVY 1 $0.55 $0.95 $40.00 72.73% $95.00

Market holding firm. Bit of a surprise

BAC puts are cut in half now. MCD still holding well so I'm going to hold that put.

Market +256 ATM and no sign of weakness ATM.

hmmmmm kinda interesting here. Still mostly cash.

2nd best day in my life

Glad I was able to take advantage of the day. Just short of $500. I believe the equity balance is around $1250 now from $800.

Might take a break tomorrow and do some fishin or just get away.

Executions:



Positions:

Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
MCDVY 1 $0.55 $0.95 $40.00 72.73% $95.00
BACVD 1 $0.49 $0.34 $-15.00 -30.61% $34.00

BOT BAC $20 put @ .49.

Figured I should still have some exposure to this market.

Closed 4 puts today holding 2 more. MER and BAC made a nice chunk on.

Executions today:

09/29/2008 3:40 PM $-54.00 Bought 1 BACVD@ $0.49 Details
09/29/2008 3:39 PM $260.00 Sold 1 MOJVX@ $2.65 Details
09/29/2008 3:35 PM $235.00 Sold 1 BACVF@ $2.40 Details
09/29/2008 1:56 PM $105.00 Sold 1 BACVA@ $1.10 Details
09/29/2008 11:43 AM $110.00 Sold 1 MOJVG@ $1.15 Details

Closed the MER $22.5 @ 2.60 as well

Sorry for the late post....anxiety was gettin to me

Closed BAC $30 @ 2.40 from .80

Bailout failed. -650

Collapse. Gonna sell straight into EOD

COVERED some BAC 27.50's @ 1.15 before this mess. Riding the big ones and some MCD's short.
Screenshot of what's left. GOD BLESS AMERICA! What a friggin mess.


Symbol Quantity Avg Price Last P & L % P & L Market Value
BACVF 1 $0.81 $2.54 $173.00 213.58% $254.00
MCDVY 1 $0.55 $0.91 $36.00 65.45% $91.00
MOJVX 1 $0.74 $2.20 $146.00 197.30% $220.00

RE: Market COULD collapse -500

-500 ATM..... like I said. UGLY. GTFO.

Covered BAC 27.50 strike + 100% holding rest. We're in deep crap.

Done for the day

NCC going down the tubes. (from a diff board)

My posts from last week Thur night.........
-------------------

athlonmank8
Registered: May 2007
Posts: 796
09-25-08 05:04 PM

Next to bite the bullet if WM keeps getting taken out IMO.

Trading the pair. Anyone see a weaker bank ATM?

---------------------------------------------------------

athlonmank8
Registered: May 2007
Posts: 796
09-25-08 09:51 PM

Quote from athlonmank8:

Next to bite the bullet if WM keeps getting taken out IMO.

Trading the pair. Anyone see a weaker bank ATM?



Nice.

WM gone.....boy that was timely Saw that coming from a mile away

---------------------------------------------------------------

athlonmank8
Registered: May 2007
Posts: 796
09-26-08 10:02 AM

NCC getting smashed. -25% now

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

athlonmank8
Registered: May 2007
Posts: 796
09-29-08 10:48 AM

1.25 low. It's gone IMO


-------------

NCC $2 -47% at the moment. I HATE that bank.

Market COULD collapse......

DOW @ -289 and we just had another wave of selling. B/C the SEC banned shorting there's no limits to prop the market up below the lows from what it looks like. We need to test those previous lows on the SPX now and the DOW as well.

Covered MER $21 strike puts....

Took a little off the table here on MER. Still holding full line on BAC. Pissed off I didn't pull the trigger on the AAPL puts. I've played that RIMM/AAPL combo so many times and this time I sat on my hands. DUMB. Puts up 500-700% :(. Ah well. Still a good day.

Covered MER $21 strike @ $1.15 for I believe about 100%

Screenshot :

AAPL headed lower on RIMM

AAPL going to weaken as well as the rest of tech. We're slowing down and if that bill passes taxpayers are REALLY going to slow down. It's an ugly situation to say the least.

Oil

USO to represent oil

JWN (representing retail)

COH is another good example. Retail has broken down significantly lately and we're going to see this as a possible catalyst for the next leg down.

BAC (chart) (W)

This is a simple fib chart of BAC's 8 year history. I rank FIB as an important technical indicator HOWEVER it comes third to simple S&R (1), MA's (2). Trendlines is fourth. Fib extensions are their own category for targets.

Short MER

I have puts in both MER and BAC for a few reasons. First, I don't believe BAC can go through with this merger successfully without taking an equity hit. Not only did they buy MER for too large of a premium, but they still have troubles from the CountryWide acquisition. I think A LOT hinges on this $700B bailout and it doesn't look good at the moment. I feel that BAC had advanced notice on this bailout from the Treasury so that is why they paid the premium they did.

Regardless, the market is still extremely bearish until the kinks work themselves out ON THEIR OWN.

Current Account

Equity is @ $759. (Beginning @ $800) Small account, but it's a rebound from my daytrading experience which was ugly a few months ago. Needless to say years of profits were eaten up in about 9 months. (Approx $8,000.) Not much unless you're a student. Then it's a lot.

Current positions

Symbol

Quantity

Avg Price

Last

P & L

% P & L

Market Value

BACVA	1	$0.54	$0.43	$-11.00	-20.37%	$43.00
BACVF	1	$0.81	$0.70	$-11.00	-13.58%	$70.00
MCDVY	1	$0.55	$0.35	$-20.00	-36.36%	$35.00
MOJVG	1	$0.63	$0.85	$22.00	34.92%	$85.00
MOJVX	1	$0.74	$0.84	$10.00	13.51%	$84.00

Stops are @ -30% or otherwise stated. Typical stops are 10% (options are higher).

New Blog

Hey, just wanted to say hello. New blog I will be updating. I trade equities (typically options).

I've been in the market for approx. 10 years now. I'm 23 years old and started investing when I was about 15. I made my first trade in April of '98 and invested until I began swing trading 4 years ago. I made decent money but then switched to daytrading about a year ago in which I lost nearly all of my equity. With that said, I learned a lot VERY quickly. It was a double-edged sword to say the least. Since then i've stopped daytrading and been mostly profitable (albeit very slowly).

I used technical and fundamental analysis to make my trades as well as gut feeling which I have accumulated over the years. I primarily prefer to use technical analysis to make my trades and will always lean toward the charts rather than my own opinions. I have been studying technical analysis for 4 years and sadly only my studies from the past year have been fruitful (I have daytrading to thank for that though).

As a final note I want to say that both technical AND fundamental analysis can and must both be used to make money in the market.