Top is in

Fracts, moons, Oct. It's all gonna line up.

Perfect full moon top kicker. Full moon is on Sunday and I believe it's +/- 3 days. Yearly cycle extends into the 1st or 2nd week of October too so not only that, but October's usually the worst month. Also it's a friggin bear market so we're due for some pain.

Plenty of downside left. We broke that fract support too.

Good trading.

http://www.fep.up.pt/disciplinas/ce726/Lunar%20Cycles.pdf

This post....

http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2009/08/tuesday-update.html

Mentioning Sept. 11 at the top.

Re-iterating this Sept 11-14 pullback

There are signals from my cycles, moon cycles, and Hurst. I would be VERY surprised if this isn't the contraction/crash start.

Posted this a month and a half ago (from a post a while back)......"Overall, everything going as planned. Playing for a big break in the markets this week and going forward. Weakness to persist through sept with a bounce @ the end of the month. Then a steep fall around ******Sept. 11.*******"

I was VERY early on my crash call back in August and in fact the main reason was my lunar model. Well I reviewed it and I was a month off. It was a Sept cycle +/- 4% meaning early as August or as late as October. Well this is going to extend AT LEAST until end of October.

I'm holding S&P Oct. put leaps - 95 strike for this pullback. I'm down about 30% on them so far, but looking for a few hundred percent (especially with the vix).

This is the start. This cycles begin at the VERY start of when they should. Not earlier. That was my problem back in August and it's been fixed.

Best of trading.

The next leg.

This is the next leg from Mondays fall. Timed perfectly this should break through current support. Personally protected myself from yesterdays rally which was just as good.

Sold my BWLD @ 1.10 from .65. Saved me about .35. Currently .75.

I did buy a mess of puts yesterdays though at the bell. Noticed cycles were changing so I hopped in puts in:

AA 13's @ .33
AKS 19 @ .25
JPM 40's @ .17
BWLD .35's @ .05

Turns out AA got downgraded today so with the market being down i'm up nicely on all. I'm going to get out of AA and AKS at the open.

This could be a sharp sell-off for the next few into OPEX, but my main focus is loading up on HANS since the next cycle is coming soon as well.

Here's a post of the positions: (account summary in a new post)
NOTE! P&L is incorrect. Bids start at zero before the market opens ;)

And there she goes.....

This looks to be the start of our correction I mentioned. I split up some astrology cycles into the yearly time frame and it turns out March and August are the turning points. Kinda funny how this has lined up.

With that said, I caught very little of this fall unfortunately. I decided a while back that I won't hold options over the weekend due to the extra Theta burn involved. I think i'm gonna have to rethink that one and buy leaps instead.

I did close out of my BWLD aug. and sept. puts. Aug @ .15 (E) and my sept. @ 1.10 (from .65) for about an 80%ish return on those.

I also sold out of my LDK calls @ .40. Not sure if i mentioned that, but I wanted to stick to a strategy that didn't have any earnings factors involved since it's such a lotto. Turned out to be a good choice.

On the HANS from I bought more calls today. Own the 32-34 calls now. Why I did this I don't know, since it should pop by Wed or Thur. Unfortunately I'm addicted to buying support levels and really should focus on letting the cycle play out.

DNDN another fall here. This correction aligns nicely with the markets. What's the yield on my option position? 0. Great. What a joke.

Here's the trade summary.....



Add the fact that BWLD was sold @ 1.10 and I bought some 33's on HANS @ .25.

Account @ about 223 from a start of 289 right now. The killer LIKE ALWAYS is fucking theta. Seriously, this is destroying me.

Opened up a forex account to test the new method combined with the old and it was up approx 150% on 150 trades. So obviously this garbage is working. Options just make it more difficult. I'll post up a rough equity curve of it too. It's very pretty :)

Tuesday update

Sold out of the LDK calls @ .40 from .55 (-.15)
Stopped out of the DRI puts @ .20 from .35 (-.15)

Bought JPM puts yesterday 40's @ .30. Were up to .75 today. Closed .60. (+.30)
Bought YHOO puts yesterday @ .60 (14's). Were up to .79 but closed @ .70. (+.10)

Holding BWLD puts sept 35's are @ breakeven and aug 35's are @ .10 down just a bit.

Overall, everything going as planned. Playing for a big break in the markets this week and going forward. Weakness to persist through sept with a bounce @ the end of the month. Then a steep fall around Sept. 11.

BOT puts on retail diners....

BWLD bot Aug 35 @ .15 and Sept 35 @ .65

DRI bot aug $30 @ .35

Weakness in EAT and DIN should bode well for these.

Long an LDK put.

Chart is setting up.

In a 12.5 @ .55 today.


Some new analysis points that we may be nearing an end to this upwards cycle. The next phase should resume (up or down) Sept. 11th. IF this phase ends next week we'll probably see a drop into the end of august a slight resume and then a crash.

With that said i'm playing to the upside still since my trades will be based on purely TA and not cycle theory.

EDIT: Wow...just realized the significance here.

Treasury and BAC......

Always remembered this post.


http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2008/09/short-mer.html



http://cbs2.com/national/bank.of.america.2.992650.html
http://washingtonindependent.com/49132/paulson-to-testify-on-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-deal
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/06/25/2009-06-25_federal_reserve_chairman_ben_bernanke_i_didnt_pressure_bank_of_america_to_buy_me.html

he sure as hell did. There's still info not being divulged.

Going back into options Monday.

Trading 2 IRA's and then a personal (small) option account. Won't triple it in 2 months this time, but it should be a much more consistent ride.

No bias this time either. Using trend-based strategy utilizing S&R and over-bought/over-sold indicators.

Fixed rules apply which I have to look back over my notes to find. :(

Market gonna roll over....

But maybe not yet.

Expecting a HUGE move in GE. I played a good sized straddle on this thing.

Bought a put in JWN (again) last time rode it from 1.20 to 2.15 (went to 3.3) back in @ 1.10 to rinse and repeat.

My ESV calls look like they're gonna get some action tomorrow (hopefully)

ARD nice job on these calls as well

GG puts a little too early :(

AOB strong action

HST out WAY too early

ORLY garbage.

Overall i've been doin pretty good. Pennies too.

Not bad.....

Good run here. Been a pretty bullish start since then. HOWEVER, i'm expecting a pull-back next week. I'm heavily positioned for the downside and if it doesn't come, quite frankly im out.

I've had WAY too much trouble trading options. Theta and Vega have absolutely murdered me. Luckily it was the houses money, but still it's a little frustrating.

Nearly EVERYTHING I traded moved in my favor and I still lost money. When shit didn't move in my favor I had no choice but to just keep holding as the TV of the options depleted WAY too quickly.

What am I going to do? Start trading ATM (or ITM) options with the least amount of TV. I'm sick of getting my ass kicked solely because I have ZERO clue WHEN the underlying will move. I know where it will move but for some reason the whole "when it will happen" has me a little foggy. ;)

I'm not bitching, i'm just that my crystal ball isn't THAT good. I can only do so much.

Futures down 5

Hoping to see some significant downside tomorrow to take off some of these puts. If the hedges work, i'll be riding freebies to the long side (march) and be positioned for April to the upside.

Profit-taking Friday

Sold quite a few of my HST calls (March and April). Just have 3 march $5 left.
Sold 2 March KG calls.
Sold my AKS @ .20 for 100% as well.
Few others too I can't think of right now.

Picked up shorts in BAC ($5 and $6 strike) and 1 in JPM as well $20.

I'm about evenly positioned for both down and upside next week BUT most of my calls are now April calls, so I would be more than happy to see the banks get CRUSHED next week.

Still short AMZN, TOL, BAC, JPM, AZO
Long AOB, KG, KEG, HST, ESV, TDW

maybe a few others.

Gotta love the cycles.

Inverted usually over-extend i'd imagine......

Yeah...

and

yup

Not a bad day......

Out 200k MODC @ .001 for 150%. Holding 100k left just for a lotto.

Out 250 in da mom's.....150 left there.

Dad's holding all of the 500k for a home-run. So far made some decent bank on it.


As for the options....not a bad day again. Market's are up nicely (150) with more to come i'd imagine. This is sweet. Haven't sold any calls BUT picked up a call on AKS (7.50). I really wanna milk this run for all it's worth.

Overall this bottom call is looking pretty darn good so far :)

In puts and out some more MODC

ILMn 30 put @ .20

Out MODC @ .0008 200k (300k left)

Other retirement out 300k @ .0008 and holding 400k in there.

Still 500k in the other.

Out some calls

HST April 1 @ .35 (took some profits)

XLF @ .71 from .35
AKS @ .40

MODC!

Damn. I can't post real-time entries because of my anxiety. BUT I NAILED this thing by accident. I had a 300k order in and wanted to cancel it @ .0004 and switch to 200k. I cancelled 1 and put in the other. Well both filled @ .0004 lol. Bought more in my mother's retirement account and it once again hit a new high today (the account).

Out 300k @ .0006 and holding 500k @ .0004 for more tomorrow.

500k in my dad's retirement @ .0005

500k @ .0004 and 200k @ .0005 in my mom's

Stop on this thing is .0003 right now :)

Still long EVERTHING

This is an inverted cycle just like the last it looks like ;).

BOTTOMS up!

Market up.....

Well not too shabby today. Could have been a touch better, but who's complaining ;) haha.

ESV, KG, KEG my unfortunate laggards.

KG is the one to watch though. Another 2,000 calls @ the April 7.50 strike. Hmmmm may have to grab some myself.

Hurst cycle.....

http://www.guerrillafunds.com/cycles-analysis.html

Interesting.

Cycle Length
13-week
26-week
9-month
18-month
4.5-year
9-year

http://www.pricetime.net/introduction3b.html

Back to penny stocks

Yes. Penny stocks are my bread and butter. I have cleaned up in these things and i'm back at it again. I trade them in 2 retirement accounts (which I don't mention on here) and my own small account. Over the summer I ran one from 1k up to 7k. The other from 500 to it's current value of 2250.

After JSDA (.41-1.05) and some extra cash in my Zecco account, I figured what the hell.....not only that but my strategy works fantastic for pennies as well (meant for stocks anyways...options like I mentioned were a bit harder).

Anyways, I'm in MODC @ .0004 and ready to add.

Bot AOB april

Picked up some april AOB calls @ .15 (7.50's)

Stopped out of ILMN put @ .55 (-.10) getting better at this stop stuff finally. Could have used this type of trading a few weeks ago. Wish I could stop out of my whole portfolio right now ;) haha

Picked up some XLF @ .35 (7.50 strike)

Just a bet that the financials could out-perform.

Stole some KG March's @ .05 too (7.50)

Market +70 and probably going to retrace a bit...but so far so good.

lol at my previous post......

I forgot I posted that. Anyways, I was stopped out of TOL put @ .20 from .25. It ran up to .40 yesterday so I figured I had enough wiggle room on that. Guess not. I need these stops/orders triggered based on the UNDERLYING. It's too fucking hard to guess where these options are going to move.

I'm out of my AAPL call @ .11 from .29.
ILMN in the puts again :) weeee .65 and once again showing a slight gain.
Last 2 times I traded this successfully. .60-1.30 and then .65-1.45. This one i'm going for the home-run since it's been diverging from the BTK as of late.

AZO not too shabby on these puts, but the premium was too high. I think i over-paid. Looking to get out @ .30 from .45.

Now to the longs......

I'm 70% sure we gap up Monday and follow thru to the upside. I'm HEAVILY positioned to the upside so we'll see how that goes.....been showing profits on AKS and KEG lately but let those run back down.

Speaking of AKS look at the volume compared to the open interest......something going on here. KG another one I like too.

110% technical now........

I'm on auto-pilot for the rest of my trading career. These "value-plays" I like so much are complete shit in this market.

AAPL is a $40 stock....wall-street is full of idiots.

Market bottom....NYMO divergence

Positioned for one and we'll get it IMO. Jobless is going to be make or HUGE break.

In KG APRIL 7.50's

In these APRIL NOT the front month 7.50 @ .25

In TOL 12.50 @ .25

Really like this new system.

Market is UGLY....real mess here

Some learning to do.....

What is VWAP???

Some longs

AOB, YHOO, AAPL, KG, ESV, HST

Got my eye on all of these. YHOO and aapl best bottom charts IMO.

Sold my AAPL puts @ .24 from .38 (great move). Got a new method for stops and entries that work great. Glad to finally change it up a bit.

Happy to see the move up. Sold all of my AMZN yesterday as well as ILMN too.

Only puts are AZO and TOL.

USB lookin like a nice bottom entry as well. This one I nailed too. Usually the method was to buy it back but the technicals indicated no and that certainly worked out for the better surprisingly. REALLY happy with this new method (when combined with my old)

KG wolf

Someone's buying March and April calls. Gonna be picking up a mess of this tomorrow. Fundamentally it's strong. 1.2 billion in cash make up most of it's market cap.

Out AMZN

Out my last put @ .55. Trying to reduce my short exposure. Sick of trying to play both sides of the market.

Closing rest tomorrow.

In some new puts

Out 1 AMZN put @ .53 (holding 1 more).
In AZO 115's @ .45
In TOL 10 @ .15
In AAPL 70 @ .38

Still looking for more downside. This market is going to start looking like a wheat corn chart finally (just like it should). Gov't intervention was stupid.

Out ILMN put

Took some profit @ 1.45 (from .60) Not bad for a hedge. Thinkin it may close that 29 gap but i'm trying to position for the upside since the hedge worked out. Still holding AMZN 50 puts and sold 1 off @ .58 yesterday (from .38) for a daytrade. Holding 2 now.

Added 1 more HST @ .10

More AMZN puts

Picked up 2 more @ .38 today
ILMN limit sell @ 1.95 wasn't hit yet still holding this


JSDA DAMN!!! out the last 500 @ 1.00. Nice ride on this thing. No clue what's going on today.

JSDA.....

Nailed this thing....
Sold 1/2 @ .67 (1k remaining)
2/24/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 620 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.49 ($1.52) $0.00 ($305.32)
2/24/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 80 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.49 ($7.20) $0.00 ($46.40)
2/20/2009 JSDA SOLD 1200 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.60 ($10.61) $0.00 $709.39
2/13/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 400 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.45 ($0.90) $0.00 ($180.90)
2/13/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 400 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.45 ($7.90) $0.00 ($187.90)
2/10/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 700 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.41 ($8.44) $0.00 ($295.44)
1/22/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.40 ($9.00) $0.00 ($409.00)

Other account......
Sold 1k @ .66 (500 remaining)

2/24/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 50 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.49 ($7.12) $0.00 ($31.62)
2/24/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 1450 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.4899 ($3.55) $0.00 ($713.91)
2/19/2009 JSDA SOLD 300 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.48 ($7.73) $0.00 $136.27
2/19/2009 JSDA SOLD 1200 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.4801 ($2.89) $0.00 $573.23
2/19/2009 JSDA SOLD 1500 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.538 ($11.05) $0.00 $795.95
2/18/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.441 ($9.21) $0.00 ($450.21)
2/12/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 500 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.4101 ($8.03) $0.00 ($213.08)
2/12/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 1500 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.43 ($10.23) $0.00 ($655.23)

Most of my longs are takin a bath....

Added ESV back @ .20 and .25

Holding ILMN for more. Hit 1.25 today but really want $2 outta this.

Trades.....

Sold USB @ 1.00
AMZN put @ .45
ESV call (have 1 left) @ .60

Bought 1 ILMN put @ .60 (nice trade here). Just got back into it because it looks like it's acting a little differently than usual. Must be a seller.

USB....out

Out @ 1.00 from .40. Kind of a dumb move here, but I have too many longs

Not bad for timing. A God given ability :P

Perfect

New moon Wed. :) HOWWWWWWLL

NYMO is EXTREMELY bottoms (bullish) and the Tick or the Trin bottomed too.

Should be a decent rally. I'm barely going to be looking at my positions. Don't even care. I'm riding these in the money.

Soooo many longs

hahah i'm loaded to the gills and not dumping A THING. I'm riding these "strait" into expiration.....

Out EMC (better out there) and LVS (2.34) (hit my stop point) SO I free up some new capital.

Into a put on AMZN (hate this stock) so that'll be my hedge...

Here's my long list (you ready?) :)

AKS
USB
HST
TDK
EVS
SPY (by default :) )
AOB
KG
KEG (maybe)

Market showing some much needed strength

Finally. Let's hope the selling is done for a while. A few indicators i'm using are signaling a bounce here so we'll see.

Stopped out of EMC @ .17 from .33 ($12)
X was @ .25 from .55
LVS still riding this down but lookin to get out.

Market down 250...

Nice. Happy to see these idiots getting reamed. Myself included.

Stopped out of X @ .25

Out 1/2 LVS @ even.

Holding the rest of several calls (which most are @ even)...(value plays)

Added a few more calls

Yeesh. Didn't really think there was this much downside left.

Picked up calls in......

ESV, and AOB based on valuation.

Trying to pick up KEG, KG and TDW

lol...I love MBTrading. First exercise.

Well, as it turns out they automatically exercised my LVS option @ 2.50. First time i've exercised one. Commission was cheap $1 for the exercise. So I actually did keep the gains on it and now I own it @ 2.50. Nice! Gap up baby.

Long LVS, X, HST, and EMC

Hate to bring this up but i'll do it 1 more time

Enough said lol......sweet

Lunacy

Depending upon how the market closed tomorrow i may add some more longs

Market up about 9.50 after hours

Nice to see the rally coming earlier than expected. I'm well-positioned for it.

MOSTLY LONG

Lets rock

Long a TON of HST, some X, and some EMC. Wish I still had LVS but I do not have ANY shorts :). Oh yeah and some JSDA in the retirement account

Gurus closing shorts......

hmmmm i'm seeing quite a few people closing their shorts. Thinkin I may not have done such a bad thing here. Regardless I have a strong feeling the market will rally in the next week or two (significantly). It'll be a chance to see if things are really as bad as they seem or of itjavascript:void(0)'s all blown out of proportion.

Might take off some of these longs Monday

Here's what i'm looking at. Most of my indicators are still bearish (none signaling a bottom). In addition the chart pattern extends to 6500 or 7000 at the very least (we could potentially have more to go).

HOWEVER....the candle Friday was bullish so who knows.

Banks are insolvent, fundamentals are horrible, and it looks like the system is toast. Not sure why i'm long I guess. It's a gamble. We'll see Monday though.

Yeeesh. I need to learn how to set targets....

I walk away from the computer and my worthless 250 BAC puts move from .06 to .17 and i ride it right back to zero.

Not only that but I picked up LVS 2.50 calls and ran to 2.75 up to .25 from .05. What'd I do? Take a shower lol.

Moral of the story....IF YOU'RE GOING TO WALK AWAY....PLACE A DAMN TARGET. I have TTO's for a reason, I need to use them :)

Overall solid day and I was happy to see how the market moved today. This looks like we're setting up for a serious bottom here IMO. Next week should be huge and i'm all long now! X, HST, EMC, and I WISH I had March on LVS :( ughh. That was a stupid move

Banks could be toast Monday......

Mostly long now

Idk market may fall monday or tues but overall this is the start of a POSSIBLE bottom.

We'll see

Longs

X
HST (pretty big)
JSDA (parents IRA)

Shorts
Gonna load back up ILMN
BWLD expires today commmmoon fall you stupid POS
BAC 250's junk today imo.

Out some stuff

1200 JSDA @ .60
BAC $4.00 @ .61....shit
ILMN 30 @ .10 sweet

Still holding rest. Want BWLD to break

ILMN 30 march's @ 1.30

JSDA...serious gap pre-market

.61 bid....looking to take some off this AM and riding the rest.

S&P futures -15.....

Damn crash-type gap. This could get really ugly. My puts are gonna do nicely.

Averaging up for the win!

Need to do a better job of this myself in options (I have a shit tendency to avg down which I think correlates to time decay). I always trade this account with perfection. Livermore would be proud :) JL

Here's the JSDA confirms......

2/13/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 400 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.45 ($0.90) $0.00 ($180.90)
2/13/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 400 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.45 ($7.90) $0.00 ($187.90)
2/10/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 700 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.41 ($8.44) $0.00 ($295.44)
1/22/2009 JSDA BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF JSDA AT $0.40 ($9.00) $0.00 ($409.00)


Lookin to get some off the table tomorrow and hold the rest for a while.

Avg up avg up avg up....as long as there's support in your direction do it. Can't stress it enough.

1. Have conviction
2. Know the boundries
3. Know the targets
4. Helps you to know when to add on a profitable trade

Is Dow seriously going to gap the lows????

That'll be hilarious. Futures -8 I would consider that the "kiss of death" for the thing until I change my mind.

STILL no catalyst for upside not to mention housing has no just started to take it in the rear (and it's going to get worse) AND banks are getting butt-fucked.

Housing stocks and me

I have a long history with these guys and i've managed to be profitable in 2 of my last 3 trades with these guys.

BUT SHEESH. Did I leave a ton on the table. I have 2 ideas on how to fix this.

1. use better stops (difficult) but a good idea OR
2. Keep doing what i'm doing, but if I want to get back in @ resistance.....set a damn stock and short it again. Not sell the position and ignore it. ESPECIALLY if I have a gain on it. In fact....I'm contemplating and all or nothing approach to options where if my target doesn't get hit....then the stops @ even and that's it. Let the fucker run to the moon or lose 0. With that I need a set 30-50% stop on (with varied trailing strategies I guess. Either way I need to do a better job of letting these POS's run AND getting back in after I've bagged a few $$$ off of them IF i did in fact decide to get out. I've got 3 pages written for my strat and need to do about 2 more until im done. Maybe tomorrow. Overall i've seriously got my jive back though.

http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2009/02/closed-mess-of-puts.html

You've gotta love a great chart.......

Target for this one is .60 but could go way higher. Taking a chunk off at .59.

Market down A/H

Market was down 7 A/H and now about 5. This isn't going to end guys. We're fucked. Remember fundamentals trump techs most of the time and fundamentals AND techs are shit.

Now we're at the Nov lows and you would expect fear in the market right?

Nahhhhh



Where's the damn fear? There aint any. Smart traders are loaded up with puts and that's about it. I could show you plenty of indicators to display this. Hell TOL hadn't bottomed and still hasn't along with KBH. BAC is going Ch. 11 (wish I had held my TOL puts...my lack of belief in indicators kinda screwed me there).

Anyways what i'm trying to say is that we need a REAL washout and hopefully it comes tomorrow because Monday's going to be too late for me :) Either way it's coming.

JSDA .52

*with a cigar in my mouth and a raspy voice* "Don't ya love it when a plan comes together"

;)

http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2009/02/jsda-up-today-48-closemore-to-come.html

Some unexpected strength.....

Helping out a bit.

HST calls looked good for a while. Picked up 2 more .30 and .25. They were upgraded today again to BUY.

X calls were up too however this one I don't have quite as much conviction with.

Did a price comparison of TOL/HST and it looks like TOL topped and hotels bottomed.

JSDA ROCKIN baby. Have about 6k shares of this @ about .43. .52 now and looking for more.

BAC....these puts aren't doin too bad. Picked up 1 more 2.50 @ .03 today just for a gamble hah. This thing could get MURDERED tomorrow (needs a climax).

ILMN continues it's fall as did UNP. ILMN my puts are up to .90 now for the March.

As for everything else....no rally expected until mid-next week....early next week if the bulls are lucky. I see plenty more potential for downside.

I'd post up some charts, but everyone in the world has them up so i'm gonna skip that part. Trying to figure out a better way to link on here

Interesting day.

Picked up a few more March calls...getting ready for a swing up next week with the new moon. This is the bottoming wash-out i've been waiting for. Dow gonna get nasty through this support. S&P -7 A/H

In X 35's @ .55
HST 5's @ .25 (shit)

Out ADM put @ .10 (25)....1 left

ILMN!! The big loser today (who couldn't see that coming). March puts up 50% and my feb puts worthless.

BAC....WOW this has nationalization written ALL over it. Holding 2.50 and 4.00 puts on this still. Holding a call or two too (7.50).

Big game's on tomorrow. Expiration week gonna get fun :). I'm ready for the run next week but also ready for more of a fall this week. HOOOOOOOOWWWWWL at the moon.

JSDA makin me smile too :)

Tick and Trin

Some new analysis....we're not there yet.

Mentioned this yesterday....kinda neat. http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2009/02/spygld-correlation.html




....and this one continues.....

JSDA up today .48 close....more to come.

My post from a few days back

http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2009/02/jsda.html

Dow -40 Closed TOL

Closed my TOL put @ .90. This thing is on a crash course. Should have held because it's in the money too. I just know Obama speaks again today regarding all the free money he's going to pour onto people. I'm starting to regret this vote.

Anyways...UNP down, ILMN puts looking good... (-1.00), and ADM gonna bust out of a few of those.

We'll see what happens. Expecting further weakness as nothing has bottomed yet. Huh. After yesterday's candle I would have expected this to hold green....guess candles aren't everything.

Tick

Where's the bottom....I don't see one yet. No over-reactions here.......

SPY:GLD correlation

It appears that gold and the SPX has traded at an inverse and will continue to do so. If you see the chart correlations here it's pretty compelling. You can see a few things.

1. There's not much support
2. The gap today (circled) indicates that this could be a breakaway gap for gold/spy.....leading up to the "crash" trade.
3. There's a definite reliable downtrend here that has broken out again and targeting the 70 level....leaving a lot more room on the table.

Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

Futures up A/H at the moment but that could change once Europe opens. I still feel a downtrend.

HEY another thing to note. My HST got upgraded by RW today....that'll take out some of the supply from the market. This is a great company and should be trading 50% higher at least.

MA crosses, and stoch William

Doing some testing with a series of 3 types of MA crosses and correlations with William% and Stoch.

Key to using indicators......

Stocks have their own personality. When you find an indicator, you simply can't just use it for every stock....as you will see. Some it just won't work for. You have to tweak it using historical data (previous chart data) until you find something that works over 60% of the time. It may require a simple tweak from your typical indicator settings to find the personality of the stock. But just remember....some stocks like to trend, some like to chop, some like to run lows and highs, and some like support and resistance (some don't.) The key is to know what you're trading and the personality it has.

Holding calls

In AA, EMC, HST, BAC most are worthless.

March calls in HST that is a good company right there. X i'm lookin at too.

Drastically lightened up on the put side of things

Positions may be ok...but i can't trade OTM front month options here without getting killed on theta.

ADM took off 4 of the 6 @ .20 and still trying to let some ride.
MS took off my 15's @ .10
AZO took off my 110's @ .15
UNP took off my .35's (ughhh 40's rocked today) @ .10.
ILMN still holding.
TOL holding
BAC holding some cheapies.

Other than that i'm kinda looking for long now.

Still going to town on ILMN

Bot some $30 March puts. This thing needs a breather.

AZO ughhh haha what a nice move here. Saw it coming but was a month off. There's a seller on this thing and technical support is gone.

SPX log

Another perspective using log



New idea here

Charts.....will have a few more

Remember the lunar calendar is bullish next week so by the end of the week all shorts should be covered. This is the wash-out going into a new up move IMO.

Watching Obama right now.....

Are they going to fucking play basketball here or sign a stimulus. Enough with the introductions.......

Covered some puts

ADM, AZO some nicely profitable puts I covered.

Holding the rest. ILMN, ADM, AZO, MS, BAC, TOL. Been such a solid day I still think these have more left in it.

The market has broken ALL support and EVERY signal points down. We're going down more.

I'll post up some charts in a bit.

Longs AA, EMC, HST smashed...that's ok they were hedges.

Futures murdered

A well-deserved fall for all the bullshit they did. I've got puts in plenty of these things so we'll see how this works out.

Some charts I posted explain all the overhead resistance

Lunar calendar is still bearish until friday this week or more likely early next week (meaning this week will be the bottom fall).

DOW IS SUB 8K I mentioned this before and i'll mention it again.....THAT'S BAD. SPX gonna lose the 8's and we're gonna see 750's as the bottom.

Catalysts for downside is that the EU is getting smashed and we're not much better.

Cut off a bunch of my puts and calls

Out AA, USO, TOL, KBH, JPM and a few others.

Theta burn over this 3 day weekend is gonna kill the options so even though the market looks like it may fall into next week, the risk to profit from it will be to great.

HOWEVER...ADM I picked up another put on and ILMN 30 puts have a .05 bid now and the biotech index is falling. ILMN gonna be in for a crash next week IMO.

So i'll make due with what I have :)

UNP have 1 put there as well. Gonna do a little more house cleaning EOD cuz i think i'm going to start gearing up for a run up next week.

wax on

Waxing and Waning moons. Waxing better returns I guess.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog11-06-08/

http://eminiforecaster.com/blog/527.php

Friday.......

Man i'm pissed. The chart was PERFECT this afternoon. We were going to break down. Now the damn thing doesn't make sense because of the reuters BS news (which isn't even true....hell would ensue if they did that crap).

Everyone needs to look at a corn chart and then the Dow chart. We completely FUCK with the thing....no wonder why everyone has lost confidence in the system. We're morons.

I want to see today's lows. But like i said...the candle's bullish. This really looks ugly next week....no lie. Hope i can tear off these calls in the AM tomorrow and ride the puts lower. Still TONS of fear in this market...candle's only temporary

JSDA

figured i'd mention that I have a TON of this in my parents IRA accounts. Chart looks good and my DD came back clean.

Higher?

I'm poorly positioned for tomorrow but I am positioned for long and short. We'll see what happens.

My hunch would be a follow through higher (based on today's candle). That's an extremely bullish signal. The TAPE is bearish as all get-up...but i'm in Feb options here so i don't have time to monkey around. We broke through some significant resistance today BUT we've still got to go lower. So who knows what'll happen tomorrow. Probably just a low volume whipsaw like we've been seeing. The reuters news today made my blood boil. If they ant to pull that crap.....there's WAY better times to do it. Now they will pay.

Posted up a basica chart. Not much new. I did notice the daily stoch wasn't bottomed yet and still bearish. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

On the lunar front....the waxing is next week. That will probably be the turn-around so we won't see much on that end.

Personally would LOVE to see todays candle get busted but the odds of that are slim tomorrow. Like i said it's bullish so i'm going to take off these calls tomorrow if the market moves green and then have a few puts positioned for next week. Glad I got the chance to lighten up today tough.

I'll come back with more detail in a bit.

ILMN is VERY weak and will fall next week. Have a TON of 30 puts now. It's hitting up against a weekly MA and it's gonna tumble a bit.

Picked up some calls

Small amount of calls in

AA, EMC, and HST

Back in 1 put in

UNP and KBH

Not sure about this strength. Cautious tomorrow.

I hope the system collapses......

lol that's all i'm going to say. We were PRIMED for a fall into the close and they pull this shit....Obama does some homeowner shit. I'm sick of this garbage. Hope the market goes to 0

Well well well

Dow -150 now. What a swing. Those guys are going to take it in the "A" EOD.

Gap up tomorrow? Not very likely.

Added more ILMN puts @ this level as well as ADM.

I think i'm gonna miss the boat on UNP though. Still holding some 35's there so hopefully they make me some mulah.

Gap shouldn't fill

Here's a chart. Plenty of over-head resistance. In addition...remember! The DOW is now below the key 8k support. This just started. I'm wrong when the market proves me wrong, but this rebound wont start until next week tues IMO.

Closed a mess of puts

UNP closed @ .40 and .70 from .20
KBH closed 1.10 from .50, and the 10's @ .30 from .10 and .15
AZO 120's closed @ .40

ummm rest i'm holding for more downside. This is a mess and it's going to gap down tomorrow too IMO

Great day so far :)

DOW smashed pre-market

-120+. This astronomy stuff is great. We also just broke the trendline so this should be a pretty significant move.

Lunar Calendar.

We just had a full moon Monday. I was looking at the wrong dates. Guess what happened Monday. Dow -400. Full moon not until the 25th....this is more bearish than I thought. This should be downside into next week as well. I thought we were ending the full moon cycle. We've only just begun. This coincides well with my analysis.

S&P....

Post of DJI

This is just basic....more detail is coming along with the charts I normally use. S&P i'm going to do too as well as housing stocks.

Going lower

Lots of people out there are calling for a bounce tomorrow. Doubtful. I'm going to be the contrarian and call for a large gap down.

A few reasons

1. Broke down and there are NO catalysts for any upside....debates may last into next week

2. Fundamentally we are broken and we continually break support.

3. We closed below the 8000 level with a catalyst for SOME downside (no GOOD bank bailout).

Seriously....there is ZERO catalyst for upside here. Last time this happened we crashed. Just can't see how it doesn't happen again. We have a major trend-line yet to touch so we're good for AT LEAST -100 tomorrow.

Maybe I should throw up a chart one of these times.

Puts....

Puts in....(bear with me)
ILMN
AZO
ADM
BAC
JPM
KBH
TOL
UNP

a few others i think

calls

HST (worthless) .05's
USO

Day of reckoning....

Dow -400 and going to keep going IMO. As stated earlier, still in bearish lunar cycle, bearish fundamentals (AND now no catalyst for upside...only down), and least resistance is down.

Gonna smash through the lows like hit butter on a multi-day run here IMO. This plan SUCKED and gladly so. Finally the market doesn't get what it wants. Boooo hoooo. More pain ahead tomorrow and i'm looking great.

Holding puts from yesterday (been adding all week) and added more today even AND probably going to add more tomorrow too if I can.

This cycle wont end until LIKE I SAID.....friday or more likely Monday of next week.

It's coming....just not now.

GL guys and sorry i've been away. Been sick.

Technicals still down too

Broken support all over the place and lack of resistance is down.

Lunar cycle down......

Yeah lunar eclipse monday and we're still in full moon session.

Expecting the blood-bath to end early next week with few bounces in between.

We'll see though.

DOW -130

Saw that coming. S&R much better now for these trends. Closed the TOL put @ 1.05 for a nice daytrade.

On the edge here now because we have 2 bailouts coming and the market looks extremely weak. Not sure which way we're going to go here. I've got plenty of time to make money and right now isn't going to be the easiest so i'm going to try and stay on the sidelines for a bit now.

Closed X call and in TOL put

Sold my X call @ .65 and back in my TOL 17.5 @ .75 :) Dumped that bitch @ 1.45.

We're going lower in a bit IMO.

Rest of the calls are doing rather well as well.

ADM getting crushed (have puts in that). They got downgraded today. Overall a great day.

Want to see AZO get murdered now :)

Also own USO $36 calls from .45

Broke 8k out of a flag pattern....

I just don't see how this can't go lower. IMO it will as we've broken through almost all technical support. Leaving my puts in for more $$$$ because I think they have huge potential at the moment.

Back for good now!

Hey it's been a while. Just got busy and no time to update the blog. Lots of new positions and updates.

Closed BAC calls @ 1.20 from .37.
TOL put 17.5 @ 1.45 from 1.50
JPM put @ .33 from .65.

Account -270 at the moment.

New positions.

Puts: AZO - 110 and 100 strikes .45 and 1.10
ADM - 22.50 strike from 1.10
UNP 35 strike (2 of them) ~ 32.50

Calls:
AA - 2 $10
X - 1 40 @ .15 and 1 35 @ .50
EMC - $12 @ .18
SIGM - 12.50 @ .20
BAC - $9 @ .33 (riding profits)

Think that's it. Going to update trend analysis on this chart and go through other bearish bullish for each stock I own. Not much intra-day trading for me due to my TTO orders and I need to do a better job of leaving those in with the stops INTACT :P.

Trend analysis will be key and I will post that. Won't post the MA analysis nor indicator analysis. Overall hopefully trading improves.

Market is a mess....

Volatility is getting killed and so are my options...boohoo. Ah well. I'm positioned both ways.

Not going to go over my positions because quite frankly I don't care anymore....the market is SICK.

I'm putting up more margin so I can do Vertical Calls and Puts. I need to take advantage of some of this "sitting around".

MB currently -230. From start I'm only up 1000-230= 770 Ah well.

-Dan

WOLF on TOL?

22k on the 15's or 17.50's. Either way big volume today. Let's see what happens.

New long positions and holding 1 AZO put and 1 ADM put now.

Long calls on SIGM and CRDN/ BAC and JPM.

Puts on TOL, AZO, ADM.

Understatement of the century

From a few days ago......

"I did some research and there's an odd mix of value and over-value. IMO that leads to nominal new lows and drastic bear bounce IMO. Gonna be a choppy downtrend lower. Still some value out there. Should be interesting "

Damn up down up down.

Leads to one thing. A HUGE move coming. It will probably be to the upside with the vix being my only indicator. (in addition tops and bottoms are usually put in with these whipsaws). HOWEVER...if it's to the downside this will probably be a crash-type scenario with the vix still being my indicator.

Why the big banking collapse today.....

For starters Jim Cramer's a fucking idiot.

Anyways....the banks collapsed because too many need funding and the gov't is out of options and quite frankly....out of funding. Sure they can bail out 1 or 2 BUT now it looks like if the market doesn't rebound they're going to have to nationalize them all. Scary shit and IMO these guys won't bounce like they should. Gov't can't drink the ocean and it's stupid of them to even try. Gonna see more BK's IMO due to lack of options. Interest rates are at rock bottom too lol. What a mess.

Strength ran out of the VIX

This is the chop we're gonna see. Futures up overnight (no surprise). Gonna be a pain in the butt and i'm looking to gamble in some calls tomorrow if I find some good prices.

Need more margin in my MB account so I can do vertical calls and puts....gonna help out my performance a lot if I can get it.

-Dan

Lots of trades today

ADM 22.50 puts in @ 1.10
JPM in 28 calls @ .42/Sold my 10 puts @ .45 from .37
In BAC 7.50 calls @ .76/In 2.50 puts from .14 (now .27)

Holding TOL puts from 1.25 now 1.55 17.50
Holding AZO puts

Think that's it for now.

Market gonna bounce off these lows? Thinkin it might. VIX is screwed

Out SBUX

Closed the option @ .71 from .61. Felt like taking a profit. Let it get down to the round # 9.

lol nice

I also own a TOL $17.50 put @ 1.25.

I guess I forgot about this hah. Nice. I was wishing I had more positions going into this fall. I trade so well even I don't know it :P (jk)

For the record

Here it is.....

"Saturday, September 27, 2008
Short MER
I have puts in both MER and BAC for a few reasons. First, I don't believe BAC can go through with this merger successfully without taking an equity hit. Not only did they buy MER for too large of a premium, but they still have troubles from the CountryWide acquisition. I think A LOT hinges on this $700B bailout and it doesn't look good at the moment. I feel that BAC had advanced notice on this bailout from the Treasury so that is why they paid the premium they did.

Regardless, the market is still extremely bearish until the kinks work themselves out ON THEIR OWN. "


From this blog.

Market getting hammered

Remember what I said.....BAC could NOT afford the MER merger. Not even equity and govt bailout gonna save this IMO. What a POS.

HBC getting hammered, MS, JPM, GS, RF among a list of others. What a joke this is becomming.

DON'T get in the way of this leg down.....it's goin for new lows IMO.

I did some research and there's an odd mix of value and over-value. IMO that leads to nominal new lows and drastic bear bounce IMO. Gonna be a choppy downtrend lower. Still some value out there. Should be interesting

salvaged the AAPL trade

I was too disappointed to really post though.

Anyways.

AAPL feb puts are sold @ even (.85)

AAPL I sold those worthless JAN puts @ .15 and .29 (salvaged some cash :) )

Picked up SBUX $9 put for .61 and holding my AZO 100 @ 1.45

What a stupid move

I was up 700% on my options and gave it all back. In for 20 up to 170 and now I'm back to even.

Shit. I closed my Feb puts on AAPL @ .85 +.02.

My AZO is close to stopping out.

I picked up more Jan AAPL puts @ .41. .30 avg for 2 of them. We'll see tomorrow. Gonna end up losing.

I sold my 10 shares @ 81.60 today for a 3.6 point gain.

Lets see -60 - 45 +25 = -80 so far on this account. Putting in amother 300 once my check from zecco comes.

Going to start working on solid trading rules now. Can't have this happen again.

BOT 10 AAPL @ 78

Explain later

Steel

Some good values coming up here. Gonna pick some up soon on the next candle break.

The missed ADM gamble

Looked at shorts TOL, AMZN, DRI, ADM. Thought premiums were too high on all going into expiration.

Well ADM's puts were up 1000%+ today. Damn. Almost pulled the trigger on those. Great setup there. Ah well.

Not a bad day overall.

Moved stop up on AZO to $1 (from .90). Still enjoy MBTrading

BOT AAPL puts FEB and Front

Bot 2 puts
January $80 put @ .21 (gamble) on the break here.....
February $60 put @ .85. Stop @ .55

AAPL has been deteriorating and with retail down i'm wondering if AAPL could be in a little trouble now.

So MBTrading is probably one of the best options brokers out there

This company is badass. Better than Zecco (hard to believe). Order options are EXACTLY what I was looking for. Not to mention $1 contracts. Common....I'm like a kid in a candy store.

So I was happy with Zecco, but I could never place an OCO order. (I didn't think anyone but IB did this). Well MB offers this. TTO orders. This is worth a fortune for my trading as I have to go to work sometimes in the afternoon AND now I don't have to watch the market.

Example. TTO order to SELL AZO option @ 2.90 (sell) and limited downside @ .90 (stop). Order cancels after 1 of those are hit. AND I can even trail the sell IF I want to. How sweet is that. All for $1 a contract. I will probably be with this broker for a LONG LONG time needless to say.

Happy camper right now

BOT FEB $100 put on AZO

@1.45

This company is too highly leveraged for a declining car market. Just fell off of resistance (140) and IMO could break through the rest of support. Targeting the $95 level.

Market has weakened significantly and am thinking we're going to see another leg down here. HOWEVER values are really low in quite a few sectors so the bottoms are going to be abrupt and the downside will be choppy. (not good for options) Ah well. Need to toss a line out there.

MBTrading up and I am impressed. This company is sweet

MBTrading up now

Should be funded tomorrow....hopefully check clearing process is finished tomorrow. I'll be back for more trading (options). USO long-term so not gonna worry about that.

Finished the Zecco account @ 1900 from 800 (+500 commissions). Starting this one with 1150.

Out 10 USO @ 36

Holding rest (15). Just didn't like 1/2 my account being exposed to this thing when I could be trading options with the money. I was also wrong on it too....which is another good reason :)

RE: Oil may have bottomed

Huge run in oil. That chart was perfect. Oil still on a tear and looking to gap up Monday too. OPEC's cut and the Israel mess should boost it some more. Looking for about 40 on USO