Tuesday update

Sold out of the LDK calls @ .40 from .55 (-.15)
Stopped out of the DRI puts @ .20 from .35 (-.15)

Bought JPM puts yesterday 40's @ .30. Were up to .75 today. Closed .60. (+.30)
Bought YHOO puts yesterday @ .60 (14's). Were up to .79 but closed @ .70. (+.10)

Holding BWLD puts sept 35's are @ breakeven and aug 35's are @ .10 down just a bit.

Overall, everything going as planned. Playing for a big break in the markets this week and going forward. Weakness to persist through sept with a bounce @ the end of the month. Then a steep fall around Sept. 11.

BOT puts on retail diners....

BWLD bot Aug 35 @ .15 and Sept 35 @ .65

DRI bot aug $30 @ .35

Weakness in EAT and DIN should bode well for these.

Long an LDK put.

Chart is setting up.

In a 12.5 @ .55 today.


Some new analysis points that we may be nearing an end to this upwards cycle. The next phase should resume (up or down) Sept. 11th. IF this phase ends next week we'll probably see a drop into the end of august a slight resume and then a crash.

With that said i'm playing to the upside still since my trades will be based on purely TA and not cycle theory.

EDIT: Wow...just realized the significance here.

Treasury and BAC......

Always remembered this post.


http://straittrades.blogspot.com/2008/09/short-mer.html



http://cbs2.com/national/bank.of.america.2.992650.html
http://washingtonindependent.com/49132/paulson-to-testify-on-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-deal
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/06/25/2009-06-25_federal_reserve_chairman_ben_bernanke_i_didnt_pressure_bank_of_america_to_buy_me.html

he sure as hell did. There's still info not being divulged.

Going back into options Monday.

Trading 2 IRA's and then a personal (small) option account. Won't triple it in 2 months this time, but it should be a much more consistent ride.

No bias this time either. Using trend-based strategy utilizing S&R and over-bought/over-sold indicators.

Fixed rules apply which I have to look back over my notes to find. :(

Market gonna roll over....

But maybe not yet.

Expecting a HUGE move in GE. I played a good sized straddle on this thing.

Bought a put in JWN (again) last time rode it from 1.20 to 2.15 (went to 3.3) back in @ 1.10 to rinse and repeat.

My ESV calls look like they're gonna get some action tomorrow (hopefully)

ARD nice job on these calls as well

GG puts a little too early :(

AOB strong action

HST out WAY too early

ORLY garbage.

Overall i've been doin pretty good. Pennies too.

Not bad.....

Good run here. Been a pretty bullish start since then. HOWEVER, i'm expecting a pull-back next week. I'm heavily positioned for the downside and if it doesn't come, quite frankly im out.

I've had WAY too much trouble trading options. Theta and Vega have absolutely murdered me. Luckily it was the houses money, but still it's a little frustrating.

Nearly EVERYTHING I traded moved in my favor and I still lost money. When shit didn't move in my favor I had no choice but to just keep holding as the TV of the options depleted WAY too quickly.

What am I going to do? Start trading ATM (or ITM) options with the least amount of TV. I'm sick of getting my ass kicked solely because I have ZERO clue WHEN the underlying will move. I know where it will move but for some reason the whole "when it will happen" has me a little foggy. ;)

I'm not bitching, i'm just that my crystal ball isn't THAT good. I can only do so much.