RE: Oil may have a bit more to fall

Oil may have bottomed friday. Gapped down and bounced off of support. Israel/Gaza and Pakistan news out should boost it for next week IMO. "when fundamentals matter" :)

"Woman says God sent dream to save her"

Another great story that's on the blog. Great reminder that there's more to life than trading and money. Faith in Christ is much more important. "God works for the good of those who love him..."

http://www.modbee.com/local/story/544774.html

Good stuff.


God Bless and hope everyone had a Merry Christmas.

Oil may have a bit more to fall

From my previous post......

"I don't see a catalyst for a major drop in the next few as opposed to quite a few ppl. My best gauge being the VIX right now."

This holds to be true as the market rallied almost 400 points on Fed day and held it's ground today. My account has taken a beating due to some HORRIBLE option strangles I place. These positions weren't traded very well because I simply don't know what I'm doing when it comes to this. I kind of screwed up my account. USO has been hurting me as well.

I actually did buy TOL calls yesterday @.25 but sold them @ .55 and then .55 today before they ran to 1.30. This caused a PDT violation and I can't trade anymore :) That's alright because commissions have accounted for almost 1/2 of my gains lol. I'm changing brokers and wont be around for a while.

IN the meantime all I have is 25 USO. Account equity approx 1900. (from 800 still not bad). High was 2200

Be back up and running soon. IMO the market looks bottomed for another reason. We completed a 5 wave down (bear market) and we need a basic ABC now IMO. I've read tons of sites now and none of them have a clue.

VIX and EW (even though I HATE EW) points to higher. Fundamentals have changed a bit as well. Wondering if we'll see a hyperinflation phase in the next year.

Who knows as I probably won't be up and running 100% until after New Years.

Merry CHRISTmas all and have a good one.

Long TOL puts

$20 strike from 75 last Thursday.

USO I've got 25 shares @ an average of 37 now. I sold 15 @ 39 and change, bought 10 back @ 36.80ish. Bought more today @ 37.14.

COST i've got $50 puts @ 50 and 57.5 calls @ .15 (2 of them).

Account took a 130 hit from the COST options and commissions. So equity @ 2070. No biggie.

I'll probably be down to $2k eventually as I don't see a catalyst for a major drop in the next few as opposed to quite a few ppl. My best gauge being the VIX right now.

As for charts.....i've got much more charting coming from now on :)

MATK was sold by accident BTW

I was trying to buy more @ .50 and I accidently sold it. Was going to go into earnings with a call hedge, but ah well. No position on that.

Shorted 25 COST @ 52.65 for a small daytrade. Covered 1/2 @ 51.76.

Out my cost trade for a loss of about -120

Closed 15 shares of USO @ 39ish. Holding 5.

Bought TOL $20 puts @ .75. Holding till tomorrow probably.

Overall crazy day...head is spinning. Idk what's going on here. COST really pissed me off.

COST trade was HORRIBLE

These options got killed as if this things going into expiration. I don't get it. FUCK

MATK out @ .50 from .30 for a 10 gain after commissions. What a waste.

USO rockin...yay

In COST puts/ Trying MATK puts

Out 1/3 USO @ 35.16

Not liking the loss on this thing.

Equity over $2200 again now

Out DRYS @ 9.23

~115% return on the last 30.

History of my executions

I'm horrible at posting real-time executions. I don't care because I talk about the trade typically right after :).

Anyways, here's my history so everyone can see the trades I executed from the Zecco site.

Averaged up on DRYS and that is ALWAYS the way to go with trading. The easiest to manage trades are the ones that are positive.

DRYS now 7.40, USO 36

Beautiful day today. Couldn't have gotten it any better.

DRYS worth a lot more still

Picked up TOL 17.5 put @ .35 to "hedge" some of this exposure.
Still holding 2 15's.

DRYS killed this thing.

Sold 50 @ 6.82 and holding onto 30. They came out with a small blurb about financials and where they are lol. 60% gain on this.

"DJ The most recent annual report, and if applicable, quarterly report, is available for DryShips



DryShips: The most recent annual report, and if applicable, quarterly report, is available at no fee.

To order, visit http://djnewswires.ar.wilink.com/?link=DRYS or call 1-888-301-0513

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=CTPHyu0A4I5EcQi%2BXLKGbQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
"




Market just realized how under-valued this thing is.

Oil up $2 on the NYMEX, S&P up huge too

DRYS looking great, USO looking great and my shitty TOL puts gonna get slaughtered.

Ah well. Fun day ahead tomorrow. Really happy USO is up and i'm sure DRYS will see upper 5's tomorrow.

Anyone short right now deserves the storm they're gonna get because they have NO CLUE how to trade these markets. Atilla reminds me of Prechter and his run into a brick wall using his Elliot Wave analysis. Sticking to his guns? Go ahead.

Late update....

In DRYS 40 @ 4.13 and 40 @ 4.42. (now 4.80)

Added 17 USO @ 37.92 and taking a huge hit on this. Still expect this to come back and it looks like OPEC is going to cut pretty big Dec. 17.

TOL trade is a wash right now (and a big waste of commissions)

Equity is $1992 down for a high of $2235.

Still sitting things out and really hope TOL tanks, USO goes up, and DRYS rockets.

wow

One of the most commonly used option pricing models has a HUGE flaw

Not feeling good on TOL

Getting my ass kicked here. Tomorrow's the big day

Added USO 37.92

Total of 30 shares now

Added more TOL

EDITED THIS POST 12/4 as well.

Added more of my TOL position

Today's move was predictable

I COULD have caught a better portion of this had I used an important piece of TA which I felt wasn't as strong as the rest. I guess in these conditions it's reliability increases. Ah well. Gonna have to remember this.

Oil getting CRUSHED A/H

Glad I got the hell out of some of that. Had a pretty good feeling on this one.

TOL puts are up nicely. .85 now. Gonna hold for 1.7 and 3. Hopefully don't have to use the call hedge. IMO BZH and TOL both going to miss.

Playing TOL

EDITED THIS POST.....only sharing gains and losses on this trade

Out 1/2 USO @ 41.47

Took 1/2 off the table for a small loss. Gonna re-evaluate, but I don't want 1/2 my account in this thing if it breaks to new lows REGARDLESS of whether it comes back or not. I'm sure it will and I'm long-term, but I'm not stupid. :)